Unified market view

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Model leans higher

Hold: Risky tape

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↑ +2%

Confidence 56%

Price at model run 73.5¢ Model run: 9/21/2026, 18:01:42

Live best ask 85¢ Live update: 9/21/2026, 19:57:04

Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · this model version needs at least 30 resolved samples, Brier score ≤ 0.25, and a lower Brier score than the market baseline

Model OpenAI

Yes is priced near 73.5% after a sharp multi-horizon rise, while substantial top-level bid depth and strong recent momentum support a slightly higher estimated probability. The one-hour pullback and elevated volatility limit conviction.

Watch triggers

Sustained break above 0.815
One-day momentum turns negative
Bid depth imbalance normalizes

Why confirmation is still needed

Revisit when

Sustained break above 0.815 · One-day momentum turns negative · Bid depth imbalance normalizes

Execution guard

Price 85¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $51,077. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/21/2026, 19:57:04

Model stance

Watch

Best ask ?

85¢

Volume (24h) ?

$160,333

Liquidity ?

$51,077

Open interest ?

$2,614,242

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

0.8%

Momentum ?

19.9%

Volatility ?

1.4%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

85¢ 991.38

84¢ 25,294.99

83¢ 619.26

82¢ 3,988.1

81¢ 964.86

Asks

86¢ 590

87¢ 2,335.21

88¢ 6,429.01

89¢ 19,745

90¢ 2,229

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/21/2026, 19:32:12 80.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:34:12 83.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:36:15 86.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:38:12 84.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:40:24 84.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:42:12 85.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:44:12 84.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:46:27 83.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:48:12 83.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:50:12 84.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:52:12 84.5¢

9/21/2026, 19:53:12 84.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +2% 9/21/2026, 18:01:42

The model estimates Yes modestly above its current market probability, supported by strong weekly and daily momentum and bid-side depth.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 9/21/2026, 17:14:43

$15,122 94.69¢

Buy · Yes 9/21/2026, 16:58:38

$6,644 78.65¢

Buy · Yes 9/21/2026, 16:44:35

$9,500 46.54¢

Buy · Yes 9/21/2026, 12:06:54

$7,014 63¢

Sell · No 9/21/2026, 10:00:18

$5,194 62.73¢

Buy · Yes 9/21/2026, 09:41:48

$6,155 64¢

Sell · Yes 9/21/2026, 09:00:30

$6,809 79.11¢

Buy · Yes 9/21/2026, 08:58:06

$11,812 80¢