Yes ↑ +3% 9/18/2026, 18:01:35
The model sees a small positive divergence for Yes after its sharp repricing, but elevated volatility and substantial sell-side depth limit conviction.
Unified market view
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↑ +3%
Confidence 55%
Price at model run 42¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 18:01:35
Live best ask 48¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 19:54:17
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced near 0.42, while strong six-hour and one-day momentum suggests a slightly higher implied probability around 0.45. The recent surge and heavier ask depth increase reversal risk, so the edge remains modest and should be revisited if momentum fades or price falls below 0.38.
Watch triggers
- Yes price falls below 0.38
- Yes price breaks above 0.46
- Momentum turns negative
Why confirmation is still needed
Yes is priced near 0.42, while strong six-hour and one-day momentum suggests a slightly higher implied probability around 0.45. The recent surge and heavier ask depth increase reversal risk, so the edge remains modest and should be revisited if momentum fades or price falls below 0.38.
Revisit when
Yes price falls below 0.38 · Yes price breaks above 0.46 · Momentum turns negative
Execution guard
Price 48¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $50,084. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 19:54:17
Model stance
Leans higherBest ask ?
48¢Volume (24h) ?
$143,036Liquidity ?
$50,084Open interest ?
$2,392,247Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
31.3%Momentum ?
23.4%Volatility ?
2.2%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
47¢ 15,496.86
46¢ 559
45¢ 365.04
44¢ 3,971
43¢ 5,617.82
Asks
48¢ 966
49¢ 8,421
50¢ 3,212.15
51¢ 645
52¢ 355
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 19:30:19 46.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:32:29 46.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:34:17 46.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:36:19 46.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:38:17 45.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:40:19 45.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:42:17 45.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:44:17 45.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:46:19 45.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:48:17 46.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:50:18 47.5¢
9/18/2026, 19:51:14 47.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesSell · No 9/18/2026, 19:11:06
$10,149 54.02¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 16:06:00
$5,835 73¢
Sell · No 9/18/2026, 15:22:49
$5,312 58¢
Sell · Yes 9/18/2026, 14:56:16
$6,021 43.01¢
Sell · Yes 9/18/2026, 14:30:55
$5,964 40¢