Yes ↓ -1% 9/15/2026, 18:02:31
Recent momentum is improving, but broader trend deterioration and substantial ask depth offset the rebound.
Unified market view
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
No directional position
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Watch
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 56%
Price at model run 57¢ Model run: 9/15/2026, 18:02:31
Live best ask 54¢ Live update: 9/15/2026, 18:44:31
Model OpenAI
The Yes price has rebounded sharply over the past hour but remains in a pronounced one-day and one-week downtrend. Heavy sell-side depth near the ask suggests resistance, while the long time to expiry limits conviction that the current price is materially mispriced.
Watch triggers
- Sustained Yes price above 0.66
- Yes price falls below 0.58
- Bitcoin approaches or rejects $80,000
Why not now
The Yes price has rebounded sharply over the past hour but remains in a pronounced one-day and one-week downtrend. Heavy sell-side depth near the ask suggests resistance, while the long time to expiry limits conviction that the current price is materially mispriced.
Revisit when
Sustained Yes price above 0.66 · Yes price falls below 0.58 · Bitcoin approaches or rejects $80,000
Execution guard
Price 54¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $46,696. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/15/2026, 18:44:31
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
54¢Volume (24h) ?
$104,412Liquidity ?
$46,696Open interest ?
$2,277,553Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
11.8%Momentum ?
-9.8%Volatility ?
1.8%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
51¢ 5
50¢ 584
49¢ 1,714.42
48¢ 50
47¢ 21,225
Asks
52¢ 18,265
53¢ 15
54¢ 200
55¢ 116.11
56¢ 20
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/15/2026, 18:18:12 59.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:20:13 60.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:22:08 60.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:24:12 60.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:26:12 60.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:28:13 59.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:30:13 62.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:32:13 61.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:34:13 58.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:36:21 60.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:38:12 55.5¢
9/15/2026, 18:40:14 55.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/15/2026, 17:34:01
$5,340 89¢
Sell · No 9/15/2026, 15:45:15
$9,713 78¢
Buy · No 9/15/2026, 14:35:24
$5,750 46¢