Yes ↓ -2% 9/20/2026, 18:00:50
Yes appears modestly below fair value, but the estimated edge is small and uncertainty remains high because the resolution date is distant and geopolitical events can rapidly change probabilities.
Unified market view
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 79¢ Model run: 9/20/2026, 18:00:50
Live best ask 80¢ Live update: 9/20/2026, 20:44:53
Model OpenAI
The Yes price is 0.79, while the model estimates roughly 0.77 probability. Recent one-day weakness and substantial event risk modestly favor a lower fair value, though deep liquidity and the long horizon limit conviction.
Watch triggers
- Reassess after confirmed US or Iranian military actions
- Reassess if Yes moves materially below 0.74 or above 0.83
- Monitor credible evidence of de-escalation or escalation
Why confirmation is still needed
The Yes price is 0.79, while the model estimates roughly 0.77 probability. Recent one-day weakness and substantial event risk modestly favor a lower fair value, though deep liquidity and the long horizon limit conviction.
Revisit when
Reassess after confirmed US or Iranian military actions · Reassess if Yes moves materially below 0.74 or above 0.83 · Monitor credible evidence of de-escalation or escalation
Execution guard
Price 80¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $109,512. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/20/2026, 20:44:53
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
80¢Volume (24h) ?
$191,875Liquidity ?
$109,512Open interest ?
$556,861Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
77.0%Momentum ?
-0.6%Volatility ?
0.6%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
78¢ 4,143.09
77¢ 2,308.14
76¢ 101,628.17
75¢ 573
74¢ 318.51
Asks
80¢ 1,444.61
81¢ 4,691.27
82¢ 7,517.44
83¢ 446.39
84¢ 28.57
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/20/2026, 20:22:12 79.5¢
9/20/2026, 20:24:12 79.5¢
9/20/2026, 20:26:13 79.5¢
9/20/2026, 20:28:12 79.5¢
9/20/2026, 20:30:14 79.5¢
9/20/2026, 20:32:12 79.5¢
9/20/2026, 20:34:28 79.5¢
9/20/2026, 20:36:16 79.5¢
9/20/2026, 20:38:12 79.5¢
9/20/2026, 20:40:10 79¢
9/20/2026, 20:42:09 79¢
9/20/2026, 20:44:13 79¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 9/20/2026, 16:49:39
$11,679 85.77¢
Buy · Yes 9/20/2026, 16:49:04
$5,689 46.74¢