Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
79¢
The Yes price is 0.79, while the model estimates roughly 0.77 probability. Recent one-day weakness and substantial event risk modestly favor a lower fair value, though deep liquidity and the long horizon limit conviction.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Reassess after confirmed US or Iranian military actions · Reassess if Yes moves materially below 0.74 or above 0.83 · Monitor credible evidence of de-escalation or escalation
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
58%
The Yes price is 0.79, while the model estimates roughly 0.77 probability. Recent one-day weakness and substantial event risk modestly favor a lower fair value, though deep liquidity and the long horizon limit conviction.