Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
16.5¢
Texas’s growth-oriented posture and the narrow resolution test make enactment less likely than the 16.5% market price implies. Local limits, executive actions, and incentive cuts do not qualify; statewide grid stress and legislative risk leave meaningful tail risk.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers A mandatory statewide moratorium bill advances · Texas lawmakers signal support for a qualifying ban · Policy remains limited to local rules or incentives
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
59%
Texas’s growth-oriented posture and the narrow resolution test make enactment less likely than the 16.5% market price implies. Local limits, executive actions, and incentive cuts do not qualify; statewide grid stress and legislative risk leave meaningful tail risk.