Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
25¢
A statewide statutory moratorium is a high bar; local pauses and incentive limits do not qualify. I estimate about 22% versus a market price near 25%, though the long runway and data-center energy concerns leave meaningful uncertainty.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Reassess if a qualifying statewide bill advances. · Reassess if legislative leaders oppose a moratorium. · Distinguish binding bans from incentive limits or local pauses.
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
55%
A statewide statutory moratorium is a high bar; local pauses and incentive limits do not qualify. I estimate about 22% versus a market price near 25%, though the long runway and data-center energy concerns leave meaningful uncertainty.