Yes ↓ -1% 9/15/2026, 18:01:14
The primary outcome appears slightly above estimated fair value after a rapid repricing, with heavy ask liquidity indicating near-term resistance.
Unified market view
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 57%
Price at model run 19.1¢ Model run: 9/15/2026, 18:01:14
Live best ask 18.4¢ Live update: 9/15/2026, 18:46:05
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced around 18.3% at the quoted spread, while the sharp recent rally appears momentum-driven and faces substantial ask-side depth. The estimated probability is modestly lower, though the long horizon and limited fundamental information create material uncertainty.
Watch triggers
- Ask depth is absorbed
- Price holds above 0.20
- New candidate-field information
Why confirmation is still needed
Yes is priced around 18.3% at the quoted spread, while the sharp recent rally appears momentum-driven and faces substantial ask-side depth. The estimated probability is modestly lower, though the long horizon and limited fundamental information create material uncertainty.
Revisit when
Ask depth is absorbed · Price holds above 0.20 · New candidate-field information
Execution guard
Price 18.4¢ · spread 1.2 pts · liquidity $394,216. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/15/2026, 18:46:05
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
18.4¢Volume (24h) ?
$339,779Liquidity ?
$394,216Open interest ?
$9,434,948Spread ?
1.2¢Depth imbalance ?
-28.2%Momentum ?
39.6%Volatility ?
1.7%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
17.2¢ 20.99
17.1¢ 200.1
17¢ 799.99
16.7¢ 99
16.5¢ 1,050
Asks
18.4¢ 90.25
18.7¢ 823.96
18.8¢ 1,511
18.9¢ 1,050
19¢ 402
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/15/2026, 18:20:13 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:22:09 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:24:13 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:26:13 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:28:14 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:30:14 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:32:13 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:34:13 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:36:22 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:38:12 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:40:14 17.8¢
9/15/2026, 18:41:14 17.8¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 9/15/2026, 16:38:46
$28,543 20¢
Buy · Yes 9/15/2026, 16:37:03
$9,990 19.37¢
Buy · Yes 9/15/2026, 15:58:52
$12,900 15.3¢