Unified market view

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

No directional position

Data gap

Execution state

Watch

Model edge Yes ↑ +1%

Confidence 38%

Price at model run 15¢ Model run: 9/11/2026, 06:04:46

Live best ask 15¢ Live update: 9/11/2026, 10:05:37

Model OpenAI

The Yes price has risen from 11.5% to 14.5% over the week and from 13.5% to 14.5% over the day, indicating improving sentiment. However, substantial ask-side depth and the long time to expiry limit confidence that the current 15% price is materially below fair value.

Watch triggers

Sustained Yes trading above 18%
New national or district polling
Material change in House control forecasts

Why not now

Revisit when

Sustained Yes trading above 18% · New national or district polling · Material change in House control forecasts

Execution guard

Price 15¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $190,106. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/11/2026, 10:05:37

Model stance

Leans higher

Best ask ?

15¢

Volume (24h) ?

$214,509

Liquidity ?

$190,106

Open interest ?

$4,091,358

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

56.6%

Momentum ?

7.4%

Volatility ?

0.6%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

14¢ 7,401.31

13¢ 20,571.69

12¢ 42,631.35

11¢ 162,409

10¢ 22,271.76

Asks

15¢ 14,850.21

16¢ 14,499.14

17¢ 18,564.99

18¢ 10,664.18

19¢ 12,273.13

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/11/2026, 09:38:18 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:40:18 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:42:17 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:44:18 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:46:13 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:48:17 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:50:24 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:52:30 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:54:17 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:56:31 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 09:58:17 14.5¢

9/11/2026, 10:00:16 14.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +1% 9/11/2026, 06:04:46

Momentum is modestly favorable for Yes, but the large ask imbalance and limited election information leave no clear valuation divergence.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · Yes 9/11/2026, 07:36:06

$6,997 87¢

Buy · Yes 9/11/2026, 05:22:34

$10,000 15¢

Buy · Yes 9/11/2026, 04:55:24

$10,000 14.95¢