Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
15¢
The Yes price has risen from 11.5% to 14.5% over the week and from 13.5% to 14.5% over the day, indicating improving sentiment. However, substantial ask-side depth and the long time to expiry limit confidence that the current 15% price is materially below fair value.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained Yes trading above 18% · New national or district polling · Material change in House control forecasts
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
38%
The Yes price has risen from 11.5% to 14.5% over the week and from 13.5% to 14.5% over the day, indicating improving sentiment. However, substantial ask-side depth and the long time to expiry limit confidence that the current 15% price is materially below fair value.