Yes ↑ +2% 9/15/2026, 18:05:07
The model sees a small positive divergence from the current Yes price, supported by persistent upward momentum and bid-side depth.
Unified market view
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↑ +2%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 56¢ Model run: 9/15/2026, 18:05:07
Live best ask 57¢ Live update: 9/15/2026, 20:40:31
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced near 56%, while strong positive momentum across the 1-hour to 1-week windows and substantially greater bid depth indicate improving demand. These signals support a modestly higher fair probability, though election uncertainty and limited fundamental context constrain confidence.
Watch triggers
- Sustained Yes price above 0.57
- One-day momentum turns negative
- Major polling shift
Why confirmation is still needed
Yes is priced near 56%, while strong positive momentum across the 1-hour to 1-week windows and substantially greater bid depth indicate improving demand. These signals support a modestly higher fair probability, though election uncertainty and limited fundamental context constrain confidence.
Revisit when
Sustained Yes price above 0.57 · One-day momentum turns negative · Major polling shift
Execution guard
Price 57¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $290,163. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/15/2026, 20:40:31
Model stance
Leans higherBest ask ?
57¢Volume (24h) ?
$104,340Liquidity ?
$290,163Open interest ?
$12,300,639Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
68.7%Momentum ?
3.7%Volatility ?
0.2%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
56¢ 2,373.72
55¢ 3,571.99
54¢ 26,035.21
53¢ 195,942.16
52¢ 2,525
Asks
57¢ 2,734.28
58¢ 9,851.28
59¢ 14,123.98
60¢ 5,951.44
61¢ 10,056.52
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/15/2026, 20:15:18 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:17:13 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:19:13 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:21:13 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:23:27 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:25:16 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:27:13 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:29:13 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:31:13 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:33:13 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:35:11 56.5¢
9/15/2026, 20:36:29 56.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/15/2026, 15:56:52
$31,210 88¢