Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
56¢
Yes is priced near 56%, while strong positive momentum across the 1-hour to 1-week windows and substantially greater bid depth indicate improving demand. These signals support a modestly higher fair probability, though election uncertainty and limited fundamental context constrain confidence.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Sustained Yes price above 0.57 · One-day momentum turns negative · Major polling shift
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+2% Confidence
58%
Yes is priced near 56%, while strong positive momentum across the 1-hour to 1-week windows and substantially greater bid depth indicate improving demand. These signals support a modestly higher fair probability, though election uncertainty and limited fundamental context constrain confidence.