Yes → 0% 9/18/2026, 12:01:28
No clear divergence is detected between the market price and the model-implied probability.
Unified market view
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
No directional position
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Watch
Model edge Yes → 0%
Confidence 72%
Price at model run 11¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:01:28
Live best ask 10¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:56:06
Model OpenAI
The Yes price is approximately 0.105 midpoint, with stable short-term history and substantial liquidity. The available data does not establish a reliable probability divergence; the recent weekly decline is informative but insufficient to justify a directional estimate.
Watch triggers
- New national or state polling
- Major candidate or fundraising news
- Material orderbook repricing
Why not now
The Yes price is approximately 0.105 midpoint, with stable short-term history and substantial liquidity. The available data does not establish a reliable probability divergence; the recent weekly decline is informative but insufficient to justify a directional estimate.
Revisit when
New national or state polling · Major candidate or fundraising news · Material orderbook repricing
Execution guard
Price 10¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $487,851. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:56:06
Model stance
Leans lowerBest ask ?
10¢Volume (24h) ?
$131,439Liquidity ?
$487,851Open interest ?
$12,845,337Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
-89.2%Momentum ?
-9.5%Volatility ?
0.7%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- Momentum turning down
- Ask depth outweighs bids
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
9¢ 551
8¢ 4,386.17
7¢ 3,688.47
6¢ 13,678.46
5¢ 1,410
Asks
10¢ 59,048.42
11¢ 26,117.55
12¢ 76,324.8
13¢ 41,994.86
14¢ 212,172
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:31:13 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:33:13 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:35:10 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:37:13 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:39:13 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:41:13 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:43:13 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:45:14 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:47:13 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:49:13 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:51:13 9.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:52:13 9.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes → 0% 9/18/2026, 06:01:15
No clear mispricing is supported by the available data: price action is flat across recent horizons, while the weekly move reflects changing sentiment without a validated fundamental catalyst.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/18/2026, 00:43:39
$62,293 90¢