Yes ↑ +1% 9/17/2026, 18:02:51
Yes appears modestly underpriced relative to recent trading levels and orderbook support, but the edge is small and political uncertainty is high.
Unified market view
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Data gapExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 47%
Price at model run 44¢ Model run: 9/17/2026, 18:02:51
Live best ask 45¢ Live update: 9/17/2026, 19:51:09
Model OpenAI
The Yes price is below its recent weekly mean, while strong bid depth indicates persistent demand. However, the long time to election and limited recent movement create substantial uncertainty; the estimated probability is only modestly above the market price.
Watch triggers
- New national polling
- Major candidate eligibility news
- Yes price near 0.46
Why confirmation is still needed
The Yes price is below its recent weekly mean, while strong bid depth indicates persistent demand. However, the long time to election and limited recent movement create substantial uncertainty; the estimated probability is only modestly above the market price.
Revisit when
New national polling · Major candidate eligibility news · Yes price near 0.46
Execution guard
Price 45¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $306,607. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/17/2026, 19:51:09
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
45¢Volume (24h) ?
$28,777Liquidity ?
$306,607Open interest ?
$6,810,421Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
35.4%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
44¢ 83,479.58
43¢ 78,272.93
42¢ 44,439.07
41¢ 17,308.04
40¢ 36,556
Asks
45¢ 25,489.04
46¢ 21,504.25
47¢ 38,044.26
48¢ 10,798.72
49¢ 28,229.44
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/17/2026, 19:28:20 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:30:18 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:32:14 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:34:15 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:36:32 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:38:15 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:40:28 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:42:15 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:44:15 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:46:16 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:48:15 44.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:49:15 44.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes → 0% 9/17/2026, 12:03:21
Price action and orderbook pressure conflict, while the long-dated election outcome remains highly uncertain.
Yes ↑ +2% 9/17/2026, 06:03:08
The estimated probability is slightly above the market midpoint, but the edge is small and evidence is mixed. Revisit after major polling, coalition, or candidate-eligibility developments.
Yes → +1% 9/17/2026, 00:03:57
No clear divergence from fair value is detectable: orderbook support conflicts with the recent downward trend, and available data provides limited fundamental information.
Yes → 0% 9/16/2026, 18:02:58
No clear valuation divergence is detected.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.