9/17/2026, 18:02:51 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
44¢
The Yes price is below its recent weekly mean, while strong bid depth indicates persistent demand. However, the long time to election and limited recent movement create substantial uncertainty; the estimated probability is only modestly above the market price.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers New national polling · Major candidate eligibility news · Yes price near 0.46
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
47%
The Yes price is below its recent weekly mean, while strong bid depth indicates persistent demand. However, the long time to election and limited recent movement create substantial uncertainty; the estimated probability is only modestly above the market price.
9/17/2026, 12:03:21 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
45¢
The market prices Lula at approximately 45%, and the available data provide no reliable independent probability estimate. Strong bid depth supports near-term demand, but the recent weekly decline offsets that signal, leaving no clear edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers New high-quality Brazilian polling · Major candidate or coalition change · Sustained move outside 0.40-0.50
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
34%
The market prices Lula at approximately 45%, and the available data provide no reliable independent probability estimate. Strong bid depth supports near-term demand, but the recent weekly decline offsets that signal, leaving no clear edge.
9/17/2026, 06:03:08 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
44¢
Yes appears modestly underpriced at roughly 44.5% implied probability. Heavy bid depth provides near-term support, but the recent one-week decline and long election horizon create substantial uncertainty.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Material polling shift · Candidate eligibility news · Price moves above 0.50 or below 0.40
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+2% Confidence
40%
Yes appears modestly underpriced at roughly 44.5% implied probability. Heavy bid depth provides near-term support, but the recent one-week decline and long election horizon create substantial uncertainty.
9/17/2026, 00:03:57 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
44¢
The market implies roughly a 44–45% probability for Yes. Recent weekly weakness is offset by strong bid-side depth, while the long time to expiry and absence of fresh information make any probability adjustment highly uncertain.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers New credible Brazilian polling · Major candidate or coalition change · Sustained break below 0.40 or above 0.50
Yes neutral → Edge
+1% Confidence
32%
The market implies roughly a 44–45% probability for Yes. Recent weekly weakness is offset by strong bid-side depth, while the long time to expiry and absence of fresh information make any probability adjustment highly uncertain.
9/16/2026, 18:02:58 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
45¢
The market prices Yes near 44.5%, and the available data provides no robust basis for a different election probability. Recent weekly weakness is offset by substantial bid depth, while the long time to expiry leaves substantial uncertainty.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers New high-quality national polling · Confirmed candidate or coalition changes · Sustained break below 0.40 or above 0.50
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
62%
The market prices Yes near 44.5%, and the available data provides no robust basis for a different election probability. Recent weekly weakness is offset by substantial bid depth, while the long time to expiry leaves substantial uncertainty.
