Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 18:03:33
The market is tightly priced with modest Yes-side depth and flat recent tape, so expected value is too small to justify a trade.
Unified market view
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +2%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 65¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:03:33
Live best ask 66¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:48:26
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market is tightly priced with modest Yes-side depth and flat recent tape, so expected value is too small to justify a trade.
Watch triggers
- Yes best bid/ask 0.65/0.66
- Slight Yes depth imbalance
- 1d and 6h price flat
Why not now
The market is tightly priced with modest Yes-side depth and flat recent tape, so expected value is too small to justify a trade.
Revisit when
Yes best bid/ask 0.65/0.66 · Slight Yes depth imbalance · 1d and 6h price flat
Execution guard
Price 66¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $330,096. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:48:26
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
66¢Volume (24h) ?
$15,260Liquidity ?
$330,096Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
34.2%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
65¢ 15,332.51
64¢ 33,976.86
63¢ 48,359
62¢ 40,071.04
61¢ 32,998.98
Asks
66¢ 23,711.16
67¢ 24,511.51
68¢ 10,475.12
69¢ 12,256.52
70¢ 12,712.85
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:26:08 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:28:10 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:30:12 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:10 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:08 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:12 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:21 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:10 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:46:11 65.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:47:11 65.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 12:03:13
Price is near fair value with tight spread and balanced, stable order flow. Any edge looks too small to trade aggressively.
Yes ↓ -1% 8/3/2026, 06:02:47
Current price looks efficient with mild bearish tilt, but the edge is too small for a clear trade.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 00:03:01
Modest bearish lean versus the current 0.65 price; no fresh upward momentum and orderbook skew is not enough to offset the already-rich valuation.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 18:02:04
Slightly bearish versus current price: recent trend softened, and bid/ask depth is heavier on the No side, implying modest downside in Yes.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.