Yes ↑ +1% 9/18/2026, 12:01:10
The model sees Yes as slightly below fair value, supported by orderbook demand but offset by recent weakness and substantial election uncertainty.
Unified market view
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans higher
Data gapExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↑ +1%
Confidence 36%
Price at model run 42¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:01:10
Live best ask 43¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 17:00:20
Model OpenAI
Yes is priced near 42%, while substantial bid depth and a strongly positive top-of-book imbalance provide modest support. However, the recent daily and weekly declines and long time to expiry limit conviction, leaving only a small estimated edge.
Watch triggers
- Price breaks below 0.40
- Bid imbalance materially weakens
- New polling changes the race
Why confirmation is still needed
Yes is priced near 42%, while substantial bid depth and a strongly positive top-of-book imbalance provide modest support. However, the recent daily and weekly declines and long time to expiry limit conviction, leaving only a small estimated edge.
Revisit when
Price breaks below 0.40 · Bid imbalance materially weakens · New polling changes the race
Execution guard
Price 43¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $254,703. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 17:00:20
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
43¢Volume (24h) ?
$160,699Liquidity ?
$254,703Open interest ?
$6,908,533Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
22.8%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.2%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
42¢ 20,273.71
41¢ 31,412.03
40¢ 44,400.3
39¢ 70,507.66
38¢ 9,939.53
Asks
43¢ 14,755.08
44¢ 22,470.63
45¢ 23,256.47
46¢ 28,493.59
47¢ 22,037.35
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:37:16 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:39:16 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:41:16 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:43:16 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:45:17 43.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:47:16 42.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:49:28 42.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:51:16 42.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:53:17 42.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:55:16 42.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:57:16 42.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:58:16 42.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +1% 9/18/2026, 06:01:06
Yes appears slightly below estimated fair value, but the advantage is marginal and the recent short-term decline limits conviction.
Yes → 0% 9/18/2026, 00:02:03
Price action and orderbook support are mixed, leaving no clear mispricing.
Yes ↑ +1% 9/17/2026, 18:02:51
Yes appears modestly underpriced relative to recent trading levels and orderbook support, but the edge is small and political uncertainty is high.
Yes → 0% 9/17/2026, 12:03:21
Price action and orderbook pressure conflict, while the long-dated election outcome remains highly uncertain.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 9/18/2026, 16:46:40
$20,672 56.26¢
Buy · Yes 9/18/2026, 16:46:40
$7,686 56.92¢
Buy · No 9/18/2026, 02:06:16
$42,000 56¢