Yes → 0% 10/1/2026, 00:01:43
The Yes contract is near 61.2%; strong recent momentum is not an independent fair-value signal, and balanced depth offers little confirmation.
Unified market view
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
No directional position
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Watch
Model edge Yes → 0%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 61.15¢ Model run: 10/1/2026, 00:01:43
Live best ask 63.1¢ Live update: 10/1/2026, 07:44:31
Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · this model version needs at least 30 resolved samples, Brier score ≤ 0.25, and a lower Brier score than the market baseline
Model OpenAI
Recent gains indicate improving sentiment, but price action and balanced order-book depth do not establish whether 61.15% is mispriced; without polling or candidate evidence, no defensible edge is detected.
Watch triggers
- New credible national polling
- Material nomination or campaign news
- Sustained repricing with stronger order-book imbalance
Why not now
Recent gains indicate improving sentiment, but price action and balanced order-book depth do not establish whether 61.15% is mispriced; without polling or candidate evidence, no defensible edge is detected.
Revisit when
New credible national polling · Material nomination or campaign news · Sustained repricing with stronger order-book imbalance
Execution guard
Price 63.1¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $503,036. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 10/1/2026, 07:44:31
Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.
Price & order-book rules
Leans higherBest ask ?
63.1¢Volume (24h) ?
$239,503Liquidity ?
$503,036Open interest ?
$7,570,099Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
86.8%Momentum ?
1.4%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
63¢ 237.34
62.9¢ 2,222
62.8¢ 92.03
62.7¢ 300
62.6¢ 20,165.98
Asks
63.1¢ 849.73
63.2¢ 176.5
63.6¢ 91.17
63.7¢ 413
63.8¢ 99.99
Price history
Interval: 6h
10/1/2026, 07:18:11 63.25¢
10/1/2026, 07:20:15 63.25¢
10/1/2026, 07:22:10 63.25¢
10/1/2026, 07:24:15 63.25¢
10/1/2026, 07:26:14 63.25¢
10/1/2026, 07:28:11 63.25¢
10/1/2026, 07:30:29 63.25¢
10/1/2026, 07:32:15 63.3¢
10/1/2026, 07:34:15 63.3¢
10/1/2026, 07:36:15 63.3¢
10/1/2026, 07:38:11 63.05¢
10/1/2026, 07:39:15 63.05¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +2% 9/30/2026, 12:02:03
The primary outcome appears slightly below fair value given recent upward momentum and bid-side depth, but the estimate is low-confidence without polling or political news.
Yes → 0% 9/30/2026, 00:01:57
There is no clear divergence from the 58.35% market probability: orderbook support and recent price movement are mixed, while candidate-specific evidence is absent.
Yes → 0% 9/23/2026, 06:01:49
Market structure shows balanced information: short-term momentum softened, but six-hour and weekly trends remain positive and liquidity is substantial.
Yes → 0% 9/23/2026, 00:02:08
Conflicting time horizons and orderbook support do not establish a clear divergence from fair value.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 10/1/2026, 04:51:35
$12,584 63¢
Buy · Yes 10/1/2026, 01:40:14
$5,494 62.1¢
Buy · No 10/1/2026, 01:39:35
$7,533 62¢
Buy · Yes 9/30/2026, 21:21:39
$17,000 60.4¢
Sell · No 9/30/2026, 20:03:36
$6,941 39.88¢
Buy · No 9/30/2026, 15:33:41
$6,799 39.27¢
Buy · Yes 9/30/2026, 14:54:39
$6,000 60.2¢
Buy · Yes 9/30/2026, 14:54:26
$5,000 60.2¢