10/1/2026, 00:01:43 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
61.15¢
Recent gains indicate improving sentiment, but price action and balanced order-book depth do not establish whether 61.15% is mispriced; without polling or candidate evidence, no defensible edge is detected.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers New credible national polling · Material nomination or campaign news · Sustained repricing with stronger order-book imbalance
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
58%
Recent gains indicate improving sentiment, but price action and balanced order-book depth do not establish whether 61.15% is mispriced; without polling or candidate evidence, no defensible edge is detected.
9/30/2026, 12:02:03 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Short-term Current price
59.85¢
The 59.85% market price is supported by recent gains and a strong bid-side depth imbalance, suggesting a small near-term positive edge. This is mainly flow-based; absent polling or candidate-news data leaves substantial uncertainty.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Revisit if bid-side depth imbalance materially narrows. · Revisit if the price falls below 0.58. · Reassess on material polling or candidate news.
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+2% Confidence
45%
The 59.85% market price is supported by recent gains and a strong bid-side depth imbalance, suggesting a small near-term positive edge. This is mainly flow-based; absent polling or candidate-news data leaves substantial uncertainty.
9/30/2026, 00:01:57 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
58.35¢
At 58.35%, the market price is not contradicted by the available evidence. Yes-side bid depth is stronger, but the recent six-hour decline and one-day gain point in different directions; no independent election fundamentals are provided.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Reassess if credible polling materially shifts the race. · Reassess if sustained price action breaks the recent range.
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
38%
At 58.35%, the market price is not contradicted by the available evidence. Yes-side bid depth is stronger, but the recent six-hour decline and one-day gain point in different directions; no independent election fundamentals are provided.
9/23/2026, 06:01:49 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
58.95¢
The Yes price is 0.5895, supported by strong bid-side depth, while recent one-day weakness offsets the broader one-week gain. With no independent polling or candidate-specific evidence, the estimated probability is close to market pricing.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers New high-quality election polling · Sustained break below 0.55 · Sustained break above 0.62
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
57%
The Yes price is 0.5895, supported by strong bid-side depth, while recent one-day weakness offsets the broader one-week gain. With no independent polling or candidate-specific evidence, the estimated probability is close to market pricing.
9/23/2026, 00:02:08 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
58.55¢
Yes is priced near 58.55%, with strong liquidity and a narrow spread. Recent daily momentum is bearish, but the one-week trend remains positive and bid depth exceeds ask depth, leaving no reliable mispricing estimate.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers A sustained break below recent lows · Fresh credible polling data · A sharp shift in orderbook imbalance
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
62%
Yes is priced near 58.55%, with strong liquidity and a narrow spread. Recent daily momentum is bearish, but the one-week trend remains positive and bid depth exceeds ask depth, leaving no reliable mispricing estimate.
