Unified market view

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Model direction

Model leans lower

Data gap

Execution state

Needs confirmation

Model edge Yes ↓ -0%

Confidence 43%

Price at model run 78.5¢ Model run: 9/23/2026, 06:01:21

Live best ask 75¢ Live update: 9/23/2026, 16:27:05

Conservative Kelly reference — Unavailable · the prediction snapshot is stale

Model OpenAI

Model output exists, but it is stale and should not guide a current view.

Watch triggers

Break above 0.81
Fall below 0.76
Material polling or candidate news

Why confirmation is still needed

Model output exists, but it is stale and should not guide a current view.

Revisit when

Break above 0.81 · Fall below 0.76 · Material polling or candidate news

Execution guard

Price 75¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $80,868. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.

Summary

Updated at 9/23/2026, 16:27:05

Uses price momentum and volatility over 6h, together with current order-book depth, spread and liquidity. This is not an AI probability forecast and may differ from the model view.

Price & order-book rules

Leans lower

Best ask ?

75¢

Volume (24h) ?

$103,684

Liquidity ?

$80,868

Open interest ?

$372,316

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-31.2%

Momentum ?

-5.1%

Volatility ?

0.5%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Momentum turning down
Ask depth outweighs bids
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

74¢ 275

73¢ 1,183.82

72¢ 1,572.85

71¢ 4,476.43

70¢ 382.04

Asks

75¢ 436.42

76¢ 139

77¢ 1,307.25

78¢ 2,893

79¢ 10,281.75

Price history

Interval: 6h

9/23/2026, 16:03:16 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:05:16 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:07:14 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:09:16 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:11:15 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:13:14 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:15:12 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:17:11 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:19:14 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:21:29 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:23:31 74.5¢

9/23/2026, 16:24:29 74.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -0% 9/23/2026, 06:01:21

The market appears slightly above estimated fair value, with short-term pressure and heavy resistance offsetting strong weekly appreciation. Reassess if price breaks above 0.81 or falls below 0.76.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.