Yes ↓ -2% 9/17/2026, 18:01:00
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value, but the edge is modest because geopolitical shocks and strong bid-side liquidity can reprice the market abruptly.
Unified market view
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Hold: Efficient priceExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 56%
Price at model run 17¢ Model run: 9/17/2026, 18:01:00
Live best ask 17¢ Live update: 9/17/2026, 19:50:09
Model OpenAI
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long-run base rate and lack of recent price momentum suggest a modestly lower probability. Heavy bid depth limits conviction, and major geopolitical escalation could quickly invalidate this view.
Watch triggers
- Major military escalation or de-escalation
- Sustained break above 0.20 or below 0.14
- Material change in bid-side liquidity
Why confirmation is still needed
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long-run base rate and lack of recent price momentum suggest a modestly lower probability. Heavy bid depth limits conviction, and major geopolitical escalation could quickly invalidate this view.
Revisit when
Major military escalation or de-escalation · Sustained break above 0.20 or below 0.14 · Material change in bid-side liquidity
Execution guard
Price 17¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $765,000. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/17/2026, 19:50:09
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
17¢Volume (24h) ?
$175,443Liquidity ?
$765,000Open interest ?
$7,260,115Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
60.8%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
16¢ 196,324.34
15¢ 161,429.9
14¢ 958,020.17
13¢ 52,309.45
12¢ 133,577.73
Asks
17¢ 76,879.13
18¢ 197,818.17
19¢ 69,024.45
20¢ 15,696.78
21¢ 6,546.71
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/17/2026, 19:25:12 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:27:13 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:29:13 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:31:12 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:33:12 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:35:26 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:37:12 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:39:12 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:41:12 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:43:12 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:45:12 16.5¢
9/17/2026, 19:46:12 16.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes → 0% 9/17/2026, 12:01:47
No clear divergence is visible between the market price and the estimated probability.
Yes ↓ -1% 9/17/2026, 06:01:29
Yes appears modestly above estimated fair value, but the edge is small and geopolitical developments can rapidly change probabilities.
Yes ↓ -1% 9/17/2026, 00:02:11
Yes appears modestly above estimated fair value, but the edge is small and event-driven uncertainty is high.
Yes ↓ -2% 9/16/2026, 18:01:07
The Yes outcome appears slightly above fair value, but the long horizon, balanced recent price action, and substantial liquidity reduce confidence.
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · No 9/17/2026, 19:05:45
$23,240 83¢
Sell · No 9/17/2026, 13:26:45
$18,260 83¢
Sell · No 9/17/2026, 12:54:21
$33,200 83¢