Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 12:00:35
The Yes side looks a bit rich versus the current balance of supply/demand and the lack of upward momentum.
Unified market view
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 68%
Price at model run 21¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:00:35
Live best ask 21¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:45:34
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The Yes side looks a bit rich versus the current balance of supply/demand and the lack of upward momentum.
Watch triggers
- Yes best ask only 0.21
- No side has much deeper depth
- 1w Yes trend is down
Why not now
The Yes side looks a bit rich versus the current balance of supply/demand and the lack of upward momentum.
Revisit when
Yes best ask only 0.21 · No side has much deeper depth · 1w Yes trend is down
Execution guard
Price 21¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $1,333,597. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:45:34
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
21¢Volume (24h) ?
$946,297Liquidity ?
$1,333,597Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
70.3%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
1.0%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
20¢ 660,158.64
19¢ 1,156,689.67
18¢ 452,134.08
17¢ 42,214.71
16¢ 20,433.3
Asks
21¢ 33,464.72
22¢ 95,878.76
23¢ 203,444.7
24¢ 18,268.02
25¢ 55,291.15
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:24:09 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:26:07 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:28:20 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:30:09 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:32:06 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:34:09 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:36:06 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:38:08 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:40:09 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:42:08 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:44:06 20.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:09 20.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +1% 8/3/2026, 06:00:18
The market appears fairly priced around a low-probability tail event; orderbook support is decent but not enough to justify a clear edge after considering the long-dated geopolitical hurdle.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 00:00:16
The market already prices a low invasion probability and the bid/ask is tight, leaving only a small negative edge on Yes. Better to wait for a larger dislocation or new geopolitical catalyst.
Yes ↓ -6% 8/2/2026, 18:00:15
Slightly overpriced Yes relative to a low-probability, distant-event base rate; current tape has weakened over 24h and orderbook favors No liquidity.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 12:00:14
No clear edge versus the current price: geopolitical tail risk remains, but recent price action and balanced depth do not justify a directional trade.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 8/3/2026, 13:36:30
$10,000 80¢
Buy · Yes 8/3/2026, 12:23:15
$7,916 21¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 12:10:20
$9,842 79¢
Sell · No 8/3/2026, 12:04:57
$364,741 78.11¢
Buy · No 8/3/2026, 07:30:20
$5,128 80¢
Buy · Yes 8/2/2026, 22:19:45
$6,027 20¢
Sell · No 8/2/2026, 22:19:29
$8,000 80¢
Buy · No 8/2/2026, 21:52:53
$27,528 80¢