9/17/2026, 18:01:00 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
17¢
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long-run base rate and lack of recent price momentum suggest a modestly lower probability. Heavy bid depth limits conviction, and major geopolitical escalation could quickly invalidate this view.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Major military escalation or de-escalation · Sustained break above 0.20 or below 0.14 · Material change in bid-side liquidity
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
56%
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long-run base rate and lack of recent price momentum suggest a modestly lower probability. Heavy bid depth limits conviction, and major geopolitical escalation could quickly invalidate this view.
9/17/2026, 12:01:47 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
16¢
The Yes price near 0.16 appears broadly consistent with a low-probability geopolitical event. Strong bid depth supports the contract, but recent movement is mixed and the data provides no reliable catalyst for a material repricing.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible military escalation · Material diplomatic agreement · Sustained move outside 0.145–0.175
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
58%
The Yes price near 0.16 appears broadly consistent with a low-probability geopolitical event. Strong bid depth supports the contract, but recent movement is mixed and the data provides no reliable catalyst for a material repricing.
9/17/2026, 06:01:29 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
16¢
The market implies a 16% probability, while the long-horizon base rate and the demanding resolution criterion suggest a slightly lower estimate near 14.5%. Recent upward movement and strong bid depth limit conviction; reassess after major U.S.-Iran escalation or de-escalation.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible evidence of imminent U.S. military action · A formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement · Yes price moves materially above 20%
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
45%
The market implies a 16% probability, while the long-horizon base rate and the demanding resolution criterion suggest a slightly lower estimate near 14.5%. Recent upward movement and strong bid depth limit conviction; reassess after major U.S.-Iran escalation or de-escalation.
9/17/2026, 00:02:11 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
Medium-term Current price
17¢
The Yes price is 0.17, while the base-rate and long-horizon nature of a U.S. invasion before 2027 support a modestly lower probability near 0.155. The recent weekly rise and strong bid depth add uncertainty; reassess on credible military or diplomatic developments.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Credible evidence of U.S. military preparations · Direct U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough · Sustained Yes price above 0.20 or below 0.14
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
58%
The Yes price is 0.17, while the base-rate and long-horizon nature of a U.S. invasion before 2027 support a modestly lower probability near 0.155. The recent weekly rise and strong bid depth add uncertainty; reassess on credible military or diplomatic developments.
9/16/2026, 18:01:07 OpenAI
Model stance Watch Horizon
To expiry Current price
16¢
The implied probability near 16% appears modestly above a base-rate-adjusted estimate for a U.S. invasion intended to establish control before 2027. Recent weekly momentum is upward and bid depth is strong, so the edge is limited and should be revisited after major military or diplomatic developments.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Confirmed U.S. offensive action toward territorial control · Major U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement · Regional conflict escalation involving U.S. forces
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
58%
The implied probability near 16% appears modestly above a base-rate-adjusted estimate for a U.S. invasion intended to establish control before 2027. Recent weekly momentum is upward and bid depth is strong, so the edge is limited and should be revisited after major military or diplomatic developments.
