Yes ↓ -4% 9/18/2026, 12:00:43
The model sees a small bearish divergence for Yes, but the edge is uncertain because military escalation can reprice abruptly and the orderbook is bid-heavy.
Unified market view
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Model direction
Model leans lower
Watch triggerExecution state
Needs confirmation
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 16¢ Model run: 9/18/2026, 12:00:43
Live best ask 17¢ Live update: 9/18/2026, 16:58:08
Model OpenAI
The implied probability near 16.5% appears modestly high for a U.S. invasion intended to establish control in Iran before 2027. Recent prices are stable, while strong bid imbalance may provide short-term support; geopolitical shocks remain the main uncertainty.
Watch triggers
- Confirmed U.S. ground offensive preparations
- Direct U.S.-Iran military escalation
- Sustained Yes price above 0.20
Why confirmation is still needed
The implied probability near 16.5% appears modestly high for a U.S. invasion intended to establish control in Iran before 2027. Recent prices are stable, while strong bid imbalance may provide short-term support; geopolitical shocks remain the main uncertainty.
Revisit when
Confirmed U.S. ground offensive preparations · Direct U.S.-Iran military escalation · Sustained Yes price above 0.20
Execution guard
Price 17¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $729,468. Treat the model view as research and verify it against the live market tape.
Summary
Updated at 9/18/2026, 16:58:08
Model stance
WatchBest ask ?
17¢Volume (24h) ?
$247,548Liquidity ?
$729,468Open interest ?
$7,287,926Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
38.2%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
16¢ 169,853.24
15¢ 108,154.32
14¢ 509,291.05
13¢ 52,369.31
12¢ 133,743.64
Asks
17¢ 168,091.69
18¢ 174,840.33
19¢ 70,553.95
20¢ 15,178.43
21¢ 6,546.71
Price history
Interval: 6h
9/18/2026, 16:34:14 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:36:27 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:38:13 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:40:13 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:42:13 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:44:14 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:46:13 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:48:10 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:50:13 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:52:13 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:54:13 16.5¢
9/18/2026, 16:55:13 16.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -1% 9/18/2026, 06:00:47
The Yes outcome appears slightly above estimated fair value, though the edge is small and uncertainty is high over the long resolution period.
Yes → 0% 9/18/2026, 00:01:07
No clear divergence is detected between the market-implied probability and the model view.
Yes ↓ -2% 9/17/2026, 18:01:00
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value, but the edge is modest because geopolitical shocks and strong bid-side liquidity can reprice the market abruptly.
Yes → 0% 9/17/2026, 12:01:47
No clear divergence is visible between the market price and the estimated probability.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · No 9/18/2026, 09:48:40
$25,200 84¢
Sell · No 9/18/2026, 05:11:15
$8,300 83¢
Sell · No 9/18/2026, 02:05:40
$47,914 82.58¢
Sell · No 9/18/2026, 01:40:07
$16,600 83¢