Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 12:02:08
Current price appears close to fair value with only a small positive edge and no strong catalyst from history or orderbook.
Unified market view
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↑ +2%
Confidence 55%
Price at model run 67¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 12:02:08
Live best ask 68¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 17:47:03
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Current price appears close to fair value with only a small positive edge and no strong catalyst from history or orderbook.
Watch triggers
- Tight 1-cent spread
- Balanced but bid-leaning depth
- Flat intraday history
Why not now
Current price appears close to fair value with only a small positive edge and no strong catalyst from history or orderbook.
Revisit when
Tight 1-cent spread · Balanced but bid-leaning depth · Flat intraday history
Execution guard
Price 68¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $246,904. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 17:47:03
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
68¢Volume (24h) ?
$60,833Liquidity ?
$246,904Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
17.6%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
67¢ 21,704.27
66¢ 61,817.88
65¢ 47,585.42
64¢ 29,000.13
63¢ 5,223.11
Asks
68¢ 76,599.91
69¢ 26,428.88
70¢ 10,438.86
71¢ 2,234
72¢ 115
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 17:25:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:27:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:29:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:31:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:33:09 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:35:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:37:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:39:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:41:08 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:43:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:45:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 17:46:10 67.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:02:15
Slight negative edge versus the current Yes price and strong ask-side pressure make fading the current level modestly attractive.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 00:02:26
Price is near fair value with tight spread and balanced book; any edge is too small to justify a directional trade.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:02:46
No strong mispricing: Yes trades near fair value with balanced liquidity and muted short-term momentum.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 12:03:11
The Yes contract looks a bit overpriced relative to the current information set, with momentum easing and no clear catalyst for a near-term repricing higher.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/2/2026, 22:06:11
$12,089 67¢