8/3/2026, 18:02:53 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
67¢
Spread is tight and the market is near fair value with only a small bearish lean on Yes. No clear mispricing or catalyst stands out enough to justify a trade.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes trades near 0.67 with tight spread · 1w price fell from 0.715 to 0.675 · Orderbook only modestly favors bids
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
58%
Price implies ~67% for a 2026 hike; the path likely depends on inflation re-acceleration or a policy shift, neither clearly priced at a discount. Recent drift down and only modest bid support suggest a slight lean to No, but not a strong edge.
8/3/2026, 12:02:08 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
67¢
Current price appears close to fair value with only a small positive edge and no strong catalyst from history or orderbook.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Tight 1-cent spread · Balanced but bid-leaning depth · Flat intraday history
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+2% Confidence
55%
Price at 0.67 implies a high chance of a 2026 hike; modest upward drift and bid-side depth support the market, but the macro path still looks near-fair value.
8/3/2026, 06:02:15 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
68¢
Slight negative edge versus the current Yes price and strong ask-side pressure make fading the current level modestly attractive.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask at 0.68 with limited upside · Orderbook favors No-side depth · Price has been flat intraday
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
68%
Yes is priced at 0.68; the market implies multiple 2026 hikes, but current odds look slightly rich given no recent upward momentum and a balanced macro path to year-end.
8/3/2026, 00:02:26 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
68¢
Price is near fair value with tight spread and balanced book; any edge is too small to justify a directional trade.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best bid/ask 0.67/0.68 · High liquidity and narrow spread · No strong recent price trend
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+2% Confidence
55%
Market prices a moderate chance of a 2026 hike, but the Fed is still above neutral enough that another move is plausible. Still, the current 0.68 price already embeds much of that risk, limiting edge.
8/2/2026, 18:02:46 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
67¢
No strong mispricing: Yes trades near fair value with balanced liquidity and muted short-term momentum.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.67 vs fair ~0.65 · 1h and 6h flat · order book slightly favors No
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
61%
Price is 0.67, but the market has drifted sideways and order book slightly favors No; only a modest edge to Yes remains given policy uncertainty.
