Yes ↓ -2% 8/3/2026, 18:02:53
Spread is tight and the market is near fair value with only a small bearish lean on Yes. No clear mispricing or catalyst stands out enough to justify a trade.
Unified market view
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 67¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 18:02:53
Live best ask 68¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 18:51:23
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Spread is tight and the market is near fair value with only a small bearish lean on Yes. No clear mispricing or catalyst stands out enough to justify a trade.
Watch triggers
- Yes trades near 0.67 with tight spread
- 1w price fell from 0.715 to 0.675
- Orderbook only modestly favors bids
Why not now
Spread is tight and the market is near fair value with only a small bearish lean on Yes. No clear mispricing or catalyst stands out enough to justify a trade.
Revisit when
Yes trades near 0.67 with tight spread · 1w price fell from 0.715 to 0.675 · Orderbook only modestly favors bids
Execution guard
Price 68¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $251,511. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/3/2026, 18:51:23
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
68¢Volume (24h) ?
$57,467Liquidity ?
$251,511Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
19.6%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
67¢ 31,325.7
66¢ 58,999.88
65¢ 45,848.96
64¢ 29,015.13
63¢ 5,223.11
Asks
68¢ 75,122.08
69¢ 27,918.34
70¢ 9,087.05
71¢ 2,234
72¢ 134
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/3/2026, 18:30:11 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:32:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:34:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:36:08 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:38:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:40:20 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:42:09 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:44:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:46:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:48:10 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:50:09 67.5¢
8/3/2026, 18:51:09 67.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 12:02:08
Current price appears close to fair value with only a small positive edge and no strong catalyst from history or orderbook.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/3/2026, 06:02:15
Slight negative edge versus the current Yes price and strong ask-side pressure make fading the current level modestly attractive.
Yes ↑ +2% 8/3/2026, 00:02:26
Price is near fair value with tight spread and balanced book; any edge is too small to justify a directional trade.
Yes ↓ -2% 8/2/2026, 18:02:46
No strong mispricing: Yes trades near fair value with balanced liquidity and muted short-term momentum.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.