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Prediction history

Market #1163699

7/23/2026, 00:01:50 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Medium-term Current price 39¢

Price is near fair value with mild bearish pressure, but no strong edge or catalyst justifies an aggressive trade.

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers 24h price down 7% · ask depth > bid depth · tight 1-cent spread
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 56%

Yes trades at 0.39 but recent 24h/1w drift is negative and ask depth outweighs bid depth, suggesting limited upside without a clear legislative catalyst.

7/21/2026, 12:02:05 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon Medium-term Current price 42¢

Price has risen quickly, but the current level looks close to fair value given mixed momentum and no clear catalyst evidence. Liquidity is decent, so the edge appears too small to justify a directi...

Note edge/置信度不足,规则判定观望

Triggers Yes price near 0.42 fair zone · recent 1w rally already priced in · flattening short-term momentum
Yes bearish ↓ Edge -2% Confidence 62%

Yes trades at 0.42, but the market has recently run up hard and now sits just below the ask with modest spread. Orderbook is thin on Yes compared with No, and the 1w/1d trend has been flattening after a sharp move, suggesting limited further upside without fresh legislative catalyst.