Yes ↓ -3% 7/13/2026, 18:00:27
Slight bearish edge on Yes at 0.65 with recent downward price momentum and ask-heavy Yes book.
Unified market view
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -3%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 65¢ Model run: 7/13/2026, 18:00:27
Live best ask 95.3¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 18:11:12
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Slight bearish edge on Yes at 0.65 with recent downward price momentum and ask-heavy Yes book.
Watch triggers
- Yes best ask 0.65
- 24h price down 0.15
- Yes ask depth > bid depth
Why not now
Slight bearish edge on Yes at 0.65 with recent downward price momentum and ask-heavy Yes book.
Revisit when
Yes best ask 0.65 · 24h price down 0.15 · Yes ask depth > bid depth
Execution guard
Price 95.3¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $532,451. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 7/15/2026, 18:11:12
Signal
BuyBest ask ?
95.3¢Volume (24h) ?
$1,409,983Liquidity ?
$532,451Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
41.9%Momentum ?
1.9%Volatility ?
0.1%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
95.2¢ 9,620.49
95.1¢ 1,030
95¢ 5,519.39
94.9¢ 13,000
94.8¢ 3,795
Asks
95.3¢ 10,413.59
95.4¢ 1,638
95.5¢ 579
95.6¢ 843.75
95.7¢ 25
Price history
Interval: 6h
7/15/2026, 15:17:04 95.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:18:07 95.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:19:07 95.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:20:08 95.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:21:04 95.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:22:05 95.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:23:04 95.2¢
7/15/2026, 15:24:05 95.2¢
7/15/2026, 15:25:09 95.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:26:06 95.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:27:04 95.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:28:06 95.25¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 7/13/2026, 06:01:02
The contract is fairly efficient near 0.76, with the recent move against Yes but no strong catalyst to justify a fresh entry at current price.
Yes ↑ +1% 7/12/2026, 12:01:41
Price is near fair value with a tight spread and mixed medium-term drift; no strong mispricing is evident.
Yes ↓ -4% 7/8/2026, 12:00:52
Price is near the upper end of the range with mixed signals and no strong mispricing. Liquidity is ample, but the edge is too small for a clear buy/sell.
Yes ↓ -5% 7/7/2026, 18:00:50
Current price looks broadly efficient; any edge is small and liquidity is deep enough that the spread is not the issue, but directional conviction is limited.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 7/15/2026, 14:31:50
$13,716 95¢
Sell · Yes 7/15/2026, 14:26:52
$5,966 94.73¢
Buy · Yes 7/15/2026, 14:22:08
$51,821 94.8¢
Buy · No 7/15/2026, 13:38:13
$5,801 4.83¢
Sell · Yes 7/15/2026, 12:45:23
$5,631 95¢
Buy · Yes 7/15/2026, 12:35:38
$67,010 95¢
Buy · Yes 7/15/2026, 12:34:56
$9,500 95¢
Buy · Yes 7/15/2026, 12:31:31
$43,445 94¢