Unified market view

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

Share to X Follow alerts Open on Polymarket

Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Data gap

Hold

Model edge Yes ↑ +1%

Confidence 42%

Current price 38.4¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Current price is close to a fair midpoint for a speculative long-dated NBA move; limited edge and decent two-sided liquidity favor waiting.

Watch triggers

Bid depth slightly exceeds ask depth
1h price is stable
7d move already steep

Why not now

Current price is close to a fair midpoint for a speculative long-dated NBA move; limited edge and decent two-sided liquidity favor waiting.

Revisit when

Bid depth slightly exceeds ask depth · 1h price is stable · 7d move already steep

Execution guard

Price 38.4¢ · spread 0.4 pts · liquidity $45,847. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 7/4/2026, 13:12:01

Signal

Sell

Best ask ?

39¢

Volume (24h) ?

$101,614

Liquidity ?

$58,316

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.2¢

Depth imbalance ?

-74.4%

Momentum ?

-3.7%

Volatility ?

0.2%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

Momentum turning down
Ask depth outweighs bids
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

38.8¢ 7.53

38.7¢ 398.35

38.6¢ 0.01

38.2¢ 200

38.1¢ 129.98

Asks

39¢ 797.44

39.1¢ 500

39.5¢ 320.42

39.6¢ 800

39.7¢ 2,600.1

Price history

Interval: 6h

7/4/2026, 12:50:03 38.75¢

7/4/2026, 12:52:03 38.75¢

7/4/2026, 12:54:04 38.65¢

7/4/2026, 12:56:03 38.75¢

7/4/2026, 12:58:04 38.8¢

7/4/2026, 13:00:05 38.8¢

7/4/2026, 13:02:04 38.85¢

7/4/2026, 13:04:04 38.8¢

7/4/2026, 13:06:03 38.8¢

7/4/2026, 13:08:04 38.9¢

7/4/2026, 13:10:04 38.9¢

7/4/2026, 13:11:04 38.9¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↑ +1% 7/4/2026, 12:01:35

Current price is close to a fair midpoint for a speculative long-dated NBA move; limited edge and decent two-sided liquidity favor waiting.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.