Unified market view

Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -2%

Confidence 62%

Current price 12¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price has risen sharply with high short-term volatility, but the edge is small and current liquidity/spread do not justify an aggressive position.

Watch triggers

1d price up sharply
short-term volatility elevated
orderbook spread still tight

Why not now

Price has risen sharply with high short-term volatility, but the edge is small and current liquidity/spread do not justify an aggressive position.

Revisit when

1d price up sharply · short-term volatility elevated · orderbook spread still tight

Execution guard

Price 12¢ · spread 0.4 pts · liquidity $72,175. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 7/6/2026, 00:59:53

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

12.5¢

Volume (24h) ?

$235,748

Liquidity ?

$88,203

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1.6¢

Depth imbalance ?

51.0%

Momentum ?

212.9%

Volatility ?

10.8%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning up
Bid depth outweighs asks
Spread within 2¢
Volatility too high

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
High volatility downgrades signals to avoid noise.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

10.7¢ 40.65

10.6¢ 93

10.5¢ 1,235.52

10.4¢ 4,000

10¢ 250

Asks

12.3¢ 54

12.4¢ 78.27

12.7¢ 78

12.8¢ 1,362.24

12.9¢ 250

Price history

Interval: 6h

7/6/2026, 00:38:03 11.8¢

7/6/2026, 00:40:04 12.45¢

7/6/2026, 00:42:03 12.45¢

7/6/2026, 00:44:04 12.45¢

7/6/2026, 00:46:06 12.45¢

7/6/2026, 00:48:04 12.45¢

7/6/2026, 00:50:04 12.45¢

7/6/2026, 00:52:03 12.45¢

7/6/2026, 00:54:03 12.45¢

7/6/2026, 00:56:03 11.95¢

7/6/2026, 00:58:04 10.9¢

7/6/2026, 00:59:03 10.95¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -2% 7/6/2026, 00:00:46

Price has risen sharply with high short-term volatility, but the edge is small and current liquidity/spread do not justify an aggressive position.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.