Yes ↓ -2% 7/13/2026, 12:00:34
Yes is already near 2.7%; edge is small and liquidity is ample, but the market still appears fairly priced for a low-probability event.
Unified market view
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -2%
Confidence 82%
Price at model run 2.7¢ Model run: 7/13/2026, 12:00:34
Live best ask 1.3¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 16:01:48
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Yes is already near 2.7%; edge is small and liquidity is ample, but the market still appears fairly priced for a low-probability event.
Watch triggers
- 7d avg must reach 60+
- Yes price keeps falling
- Orderbook favors No
Why not now
Yes is already near 2.7%; edge is small and liquidity is ample, but the market still appears fairly priced for a low-probability event.
Revisit when
7d avg must reach 60+ · Yes price keeps falling · Orderbook favors No
Execution guard
Price 1.3¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $898,130. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 7/15/2026, 16:01:48
Signal
BuyBest ask ?
1.3¢Volume (24h) ?
$459,676Liquidity ?
$898,130Open interest ?
—Spread ?
0.1¢Depth imbalance ?
48.7%Momentum ?
8.7%Volatility ?
1.3%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- Momentum turning up
- Bid depth outweighs asks
- Spread within 2¢
Rule notes
- Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
- Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
- Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
1.2¢ 81,685.59
1.1¢ 52,527.04
1¢ 85,755.7
0.9¢ 33,610.27
0.8¢ 109,392.26
Asks
1.3¢ 30,519.48
1.4¢ 15,265.07
1.5¢ 20,000
1.6¢ 22,841.87
1.7¢ 36,472.12
Price history
Interval: 6h
7/15/2026, 15:40:17 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:42:05 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:44:04 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:46:05 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:48:06 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:50:08 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:52:05 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:54:05 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:56:06 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 15:58:05 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 16:00:05 1.25¢
7/15/2026, 16:01:09 1.25¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 7/13/2026, 06:00:44
Price is already extremely low and the orderbook is tight, but there is no clear catalyst or data evidence to justify entering at current levels.
Yes ↓ -1% 7/12/2026, 18:00:38
No clear edge versus the 4% Yes price; the market is already heavily tilted to No and recent price action keeps falling without a catalyst.
Yes → 0% 7/12/2026, 06:00:40
Price is near the low end with a wide consensus against Yes, but there is no clear catalyst or data edge to justify buying at 5% or selling the already discounted side.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.