Polysage · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 58%
Current price 55¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price is near fair value with mixed momentum: broad weekly support for Yes but short-term weakening and no clear new catalyst. Spread/liquidity are decent, but edge is small.

Watch triggers
  • 1d price down 3%
  • 6h trend slightly lower
  • Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth
Why not now

Price is near fair value with mixed momentum: broad weekly support for Yes but short-term weakening and no clear new catalyst. Spread/liquidity are decent, but edge is small.

Revisit when

1d price down 3% · 6h trend slightly lower · Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth

Execution guard

Price 55¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $128,685. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:35:06

Signal

Buy

Best ask ?

49¢

Volume (24h) ?

$132,961

Liquidity ?

$105,074

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

31.6%

Momentum ?

2.1%

Volatility ?

0.6%

Trend slope ?

0

Reasons

  • Momentum turning up
  • Bid depth outweighs asks
  • Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

  • Momentum = price change over the selected interval; positive means price rising.
  • Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; positive means bids dominate.
  • Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

48¢ 5
47¢ 858.55
46¢ 5,960.85
45¢ 3,192.32
44¢ 4,426.06

Asks

49¢ 18.57
50¢ 1,849.66
51¢ 1,072.59
52¢ 2,355.06
53¢ 2,216.67

Price history

Interval: 6h

5/31/2026, 14:13:04 48.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:15:03 48¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:05 48¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:03 48¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 48¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:04 48¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:03 48¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 48¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 48¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:06 48.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 48.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:34:03 48.5¢

Prediction history

Full history
Yes ↓ -4% 5/30/2026, 12:02:34

Price is near fair value with mixed momentum: broad weekly support for Yes but short-term weakening and no clear new catalyst. Spread/liquidity are decent, but edge is small.

Yes ↓ -3% 5/27/2026, 06:02:08

Price is near fair value with modest upside/downside uncertainty; no strong mispricing versus the resolution threshold.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.