Polysage · Prediction history

5/30/2026, 12:02:34 gpt-5.4-mini

Signal Hold Horizon Medium-term Current price 55¢

Price is near fair value with mixed momentum: broad weekly support for Yes but short-term weakening and no clear new catalyst. Spread/liquidity are decent, but edge is small.

Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望

Triggers 1d price down 3% · 6h trend slightly lower · Yes bid depth exceeds ask depth

Yes bearish ↓ Edge -4% Confidence 58%

Yes is priced at 0.55, but recent drift is lower on 1d/6h horizons and the market needs a sustained IMF Portwatch print at or above 60. Current price slightly overstates the chance of hitting the threshold by expiry.

5/27/2026, 06:02:08 gpt-5.4-mini

Signal Hold Horizon Medium-term Current price 62¢

Price is near fair value with modest upside/downside uncertainty; no strong mispricing versus the resolution threshold.

Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望

Triggers Yes near 0.62 · Week trend already priced in · Threshold requires sustained 60+

Yes bearish ↓ Edge -3% Confidence 63%

Yes trades near 0.62, but the threshold requires sustained 7-day average traffic >=60 by Jul 31. Recent price action is up on the week, yet the current level already embeds a strong rebound and the path to qualification remains uncertain.