7/13/2026, 12:00:34 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
2.7¢
Yes is already near 2.7%; edge is small and liquidity is ample, but the market still appears fairly priced for a low-probability event.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 7d avg must reach 60+ · Yes price keeps falling · Orderbook favors No
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
82%
Price implies a low but nonzero chance; recent 1d/1w drift is sharply down and orderbook leans against Yes. No evidence of a near-term jump to 60+ transit calls.
7/13/2026, 06:00:44 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
2.6¢
Price is already extremely low and the orderbook is tight, but there is no clear catalyst or data evidence to justify entering at current levels.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No IMF Portwatch uplift shown · Price already near floor · Recent trend remains down
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
83%
Market implies a low chance of return to normal, and the recent sharp drop reflects weak momentum. With no fresh transit evidence in the prompt, the best estimate stays below the current price.
7/12/2026, 18:00:38 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
4¢
No clear edge versus the 4% Yes price; the market is already heavily tilted to No and recent price action keeps falling without a catalyst.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price near floor · 1w trend down · No already ~95%
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
84%
Yes trades near 4-5% with persistent drift lower and wide informational uncertainty; current price already implies a very low chance, leaving little edge despite modest bid support.
7/12/2026, 06:00:40 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
5¢
Price is near the low end with a wide consensus against Yes, but there is no clear catalyst or data edge to justify buying at 5% or selling the already discounted side.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes priced at 0.05 · Recent price trend down · No fresh transit data signal
Yes neutral → Edge
0% Confidence
58%
Yes is only 4-5% and orderbook/liquidity suggest a stable but low-probability market. Recent price drift has been down, but no evidence here supports a meaningful reversal or imminent transit recovery signal.
