Yes → 0% 7/15/2026, 18:02:16
No clear mispricing: the market is stable, liquid, and the small bid/ask spread does not create a strong edge versus the low-probability event itself.
Unified market view
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes → 0%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 11¢ Model run: 7/15/2026, 18:02:16
Live best ask 11¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 23:55:33
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear mispricing: the market is stable, liquid, and the small bid/ask spread does not create a strong edge versus the low-probability event itself.
Watch triggers
- Flat price history
- No catalyst visible
- Moderate bid support
Why not now
No clear mispricing: the market is stable, liquid, and the small bid/ask spread does not create a strong edge versus the low-probability event itself.
Revisit when
Flat price history · No catalyst visible · Moderate bid support
Execution guard
Price 11¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $315,521. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 7/15/2026, 23:55:33
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
11¢Volume (24h) ?
$12,416Liquidity ?
$315,521Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
10.9%Momentum ?
0.0%Volatility ?
0.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
10¢ 73,778.88
9¢ 67,233.01
8¢ 152,880.5
7¢ 7,368.97
6¢ 13,867.73
Asks
11¢ 163,608.7
12¢ 50,948.58
13¢ 18,367.88
14¢ 14,313.53
15¢ 6,085.29
Price history
Interval: 6h
7/15/2026, 23:34:05 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:36:20 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:38:04 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:40:05 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:42:04 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:44:05 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:46:04 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:48:05 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:50:04 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:52:04 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:54:05 10.5¢
7/15/2026, 23:55:04 10.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -1% 7/15/2026, 12:02:49
Current price is efficient enough; any edge is small and liquidity/spread do not justify an aggressive trade.
Yes ↓ -3% 7/14/2026, 00:02:39
Price is already very low and recent history is flat with tight spread; there is no strong short-term catalyst or clear mispricing to exploit.
Yes ↓ -1% 7/12/2026, 00:02:34
The market is efficiently priced near a very low probability with tight spread and no catalyst. Edge is too small to justify chasing either side.
Yes ↓ -2% 7/9/2026, 18:03:06
Price is near fair for a highly speculative, low-base-rate outcome. Orderbook/liquidity are healthy, but there is no clear informational edge or momentum signal.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.