Yes ↓ -5% 6/21/2026, 00:01:17
Yes looks overpriced relative to the recent drift lower and lack of momentum into the threshold.
Unified market view
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -5%
Confidence 71%
Current price 24¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Yes looks overpriced relative to the recent drift lower and lack of momentum into the threshold.
Watch triggers
- Yes at 0.24 vs implied low base rate
- 1-week Yes trend down 0.18
- No side remains dominant
Why not now
Yes looks overpriced relative to the recent drift lower and lack of momentum into the threshold.
Revisit when
Yes at 0.24 vs implied low base rate · 1-week Yes trend down 0.18 · No side remains dominant
Execution guard
Price 24¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $160,681. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 6/21/2026, 11:16:04
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
27¢Volume (24h) ?
$275,745Liquidity ?
$149,440Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
49.5%Momentum ?
-1.8%Volatility ?
0.3%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
26¢ 6,873.21
25¢ 16,608.88
24¢ 12,445.04
23¢ 31,015.82
22¢ 37,434
Asks
28¢ 11,337.05
29¢ 6,485.43
30¢ 14,846.7
31¢ 1,450
32¢ 1,152.99
Price history
Interval: 6h
6/21/2026, 10:54:03 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 10:56:03 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 10:58:04 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:00:10 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:02:04 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:04:04 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:06:04 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:08:03 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:10:05 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:12:04 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:14:04 26.5¢
6/21/2026, 11:15:04 27¢
Prediction history
Full historyRelated whale flow
All tradesSell · No 6/21/2026, 01:54:38
$11,807 73.87¢
Sell · No 6/21/2026, 01:54:38
$18,057 74.46¢