Yes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 06:29:40
Price momentum favors Yes, but the event standard is strict and confirmation risk remains substantial. With the current 0.34/0.36 book and only modest imbalance, there is no clear mispricing.
Unified market view
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Watch trigger
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -4%
Confidence 63%
Price at model run 36¢ Model run: 8/2/2026, 06:29:40
Live best ask 36¢ Live update: 8/2/2026, 07:18:17
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Price momentum favors Yes, but the event standard is strict and confirmation risk remains substantial. With the current 0.34/0.36 book and only modest imbalance, there is no clear mispricing.
Watch triggers
- Yes near 0.36 with limited edge
- Strict qualifying-text requirement
- Book spread only 2 cents
Why not now
Price momentum favors Yes, but the event standard is strict and confirmation risk remains substantial. With the current 0.34/0.36 book and only modest imbalance, there is no clear mispricing.
Revisit when
Yes near 0.36 with limited edge · Strict qualifying-text requirement · Book spread only 2 cents
Execution guard
Price 36¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $176,223. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 8/2/2026, 07:18:17
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
36¢Volume (24h) ?
$102,712Liquidity ?
$176,223Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
-26.4%Momentum ?
29.6%Volatility ?
1.0%Trend slope ?
0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
34¢ 7,539.97
33¢ 2,077.31
32¢ 8,524.78
31¢ 3,057.06
30¢ 1,127.98
Asks
36¢ 6,687.7
37¢ 15,599.42
38¢ 4,522.84
39¢ 9,306
40¢ 2,199.98
Price history
Interval: 6h
8/2/2026, 06:55:08 35¢
8/2/2026, 06:57:09 35¢
8/2/2026, 06:59:23 35¢
8/2/2026, 07:01:10 35¢
8/2/2026, 07:03:07 35¢
8/2/2026, 07:05:11 35¢
8/2/2026, 07:07:07 35¢
8/2/2026, 07:09:09 35¢
8/2/2026, 07:11:07 35¢
8/2/2026, 07:13:10 35¢
8/2/2026, 07:15:07 35¢
8/2/2026, 07:16:07 35¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 8/2/2026, 06:19:53
Slightly negative edge versus the current Yes price; orderbook and trend support No, and the market still needs a formal final instrument with specific obligations.
Yes ↓ -3% 8/2/2026, 06:09:46
No clear mispricing: Yes has risen quickly, but structural hurdles remain and liquidity/spread are reasonable; edge is small and uncertain.
Yes ↓ -6% 8/2/2026, 06:01:20
Current price appears a bit rich relative to the likelihood of a qualifying U.S.-Iran final deal by the deadline. The setup favors fading the rally rather than chasing it.
Related whale flow
All tradesBuy · Yes 8/2/2026, 03:24:05
$5,810 33¢
Buy · Yes 8/2/2026, 02:12:44
$11,352 29.43¢