8/2/2026, 06:29:40 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
36¢
Price momentum favors Yes, but the event standard is strict and confirmation risk remains substantial. With the current 0.34/0.36 book and only modest imbalance, there is no clear mispricing.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes near 0.36 with limited edge · Strict qualifying-text requirement · Book spread only 2 cents
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
63%
Yes is priced around 0.35-0.36, but the market still requires a fully qualifying signed/adopted final deal by Dec 31, 2026. Current drift is upward, yet the legal/textual bar remains high and the spread/liquidity do not justify a stronger edge.
8/2/2026, 06:19:53 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
36¢
Slightly negative edge versus the current Yes price; orderbook and trend support No, and the market still needs a formal final instrument with specific obligations.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price only 0.36 · No side has stronger bid depth · Recent rally may be overextended
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
66%
Yes trades at 0.36, but the contract requires a qualifying signed/adopted final instrument with concrete nuclear limits. Current price rise looks momentum-driven while the base case still favors no finalized deal by deadline.
8/2/2026, 06:09:46 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
36¢
No clear mispricing: Yes has risen quickly, but structural hurdles remain and liquidity/spread are reasonable; edge is small and uncertain.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes price jumped from ~0.26 to 0.36 · Orderbook still leans No · Qualifying text/signature standards are strict
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
68%
Price implies ~36% Yes; recent move is upward, but the market still prices a low-probability diplomatic breakthrough and the text requirements are stringent, making a signed qualifying deal by year-end only modestly less likely than fair value.
8/2/2026, 06:01:20 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
36¢
Current price appears a bit rich relative to the likelihood of a qualifying U.S.-Iran final deal by the deadline. The setup favors fading the rally rather than chasing it.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.36 with limited upside · Resolution requires specific qualifying text · Recent price spike looks momentum-driven
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-6% Confidence
70%
Yes is slightly overpriced versus the still-uncertain path to a qualifying signed/adopted final deal. Recent drift upward and buy-side interest help, but the market already embeds substantial deal risk and resolution requires a concrete final instrument, not just talks.
