Unified market view

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

Share to X Follow alerts Open on Polymarket

Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -1%

Confidence 66%

Price at model run 11¢ Model run: 7/20/2026, 18:03:07

Live best ask 10¢ Live update: 7/21/2026, 07:29:38

Model gpt-5.4-mini

There is no clear edge at the current price. Liquidity is decent and the book is balanced enough that the small edge is not strong enough to buy or sell aggressively.

Watch triggers

Yes near 0.11 implies low but nonzero event risk
Recent price trend is downward
Orderbook favors No side

Why not now

There is no clear edge at the current price. Liquidity is decent and the book is balanced enough that the small edge is not strong enough to buy or sell aggressively.

Revisit when

Yes near 0.11 implies low but nonzero event risk · Recent price trend is downward · Orderbook favors No side

Execution guard

Price 10¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $59,311. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 7/21/2026, 07:29:38

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

10¢

Volume (24h) ?

$194,767

Liquidity ?

$59,311

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

43.5%

Momentum ?

-9.5%

Volatility ?

2.4%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

9¢ 3,538.54

8¢ 4,401.18

7¢ 10,704.71

6¢ 12,119.06

5¢ 12,086.87

Asks

10¢ 2,040.91

11¢ 1,878.18

12¢ 2,166.97

13¢ 2,963.43

14¢ 7,837.51

Price history

Interval: 6h

7/21/2026, 07:07:18 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:09:04 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:11:05 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:13:06 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:15:04 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:17:04 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:19:06 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:21:05 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:23:06 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:25:04 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:27:04 9.5¢

7/21/2026, 07:29:04 9.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -1% 7/20/2026, 18:03:07

There is no clear edge at the current price. Liquidity is decent and the book is balanced enough that the small edge is not strong enough to buy or sell aggressively.

Related whale flow

All trades

Sell · No 7/20/2026, 18:43:09

$8,429 86.91¢