Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
11¢
There is no clear edge at the current price. Liquidity is decent and the book is balanced enough that the small edge is not strong enough to buy or sell aggressively.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes near 0.11 implies low but nonzero event risk · Recent price trend is downward · Orderbook favors No side
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
66%
Yes is trading around 0.105-0.11, but the market has drifted sharply down and orderbook depth favors No. The timeline allows a lot of time for a qualifying strike, so price is not impossibly low, but current flow implies slightly less Yes probability than the quote.