Unified market view

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -4%

Confidence 67%

Price at model run 74¢ Model run: 8/3/2026, 00:02:20

Live best ask 73¢ Live update: 8/3/2026, 01:55:15

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Fairly efficient pricing with wide event uncertainty and no strong orderbook edge; recent momentum is positive for Yes but not enough to justify chasing at 0.74.

Watch triggers

Price near top of recent range
Orderbook nearly balanced
Long time to expiry reduces immediate edge

Why not now

Fairly efficient pricing with wide event uncertainty and no strong orderbook edge; recent momentum is positive for Yes but not enough to justify chasing at 0.74.

Revisit when

Price near top of recent range · Orderbook nearly balanced · Long time to expiry reduces immediate edge

Execution guard

Price 73¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $90,700. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 8/3/2026, 01:55:15

Signal

Sell

Best ask ?

73¢

Volume (24h) ?

$102,035

Liquidity ?

$90,700

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

2¢

Depth imbalance ?

-43.6%

Momentum ?

-0.7%

Volatility ?

0.4%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

Momentum turning down
Ask depth outweighs bids
Spread within 2¢

Rule notes

Momentum = price change over the selected interval; negative means price falling.
Depth imbalance compares total bid size vs ask size; negative means asks dominate.
Spread is best ask minus best bid; smaller is easier to enter/exit.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

71¢ 828.13

70¢ 1,113.81

69¢ 866.86

68¢ 269.35

67¢ 273.52

Asks

73¢ 693.39

74¢ 3,045.26

75¢ 1,506

76¢ 1,580.88

77¢ 1,702.01

Price history

Interval: 6h

8/3/2026, 01:33:09 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:35:10 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:37:07 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:39:09 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:41:09 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:43:09 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:45:10 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:47:07 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:49:09 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:51:07 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:53:09 72¢

8/3/2026, 01:54:09 72¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -4% 8/3/2026, 00:02:20

Fairly efficient pricing with wide event uncertainty and no strong orderbook edge; recent momentum is positive for Yes but not enough to justify chasing at 0.74.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.