Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
74¢
Fairly efficient pricing with wide event uncertainty and no strong orderbook edge; recent momentum is positive for Yes but not enough to justify chasing at 0.74.
Note edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Price near top of recent range · Orderbook nearly balanced · Long time to expiry reduces immediate edge
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
67%
Yes is priced above 0.72-0.74, but the market has recently run up sharply and now shows only slight bid/ask balance; the event window is long enough for renewed conflict risk, yet current price already embeds substantial peace optimism, leaving limited upside.