Unified market view

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes → 0%

Confidence 68%

Current price 16.9¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

No clear edge versus the current price and the spread is tight, so the market appears efficiently priced.

Watch triggers

Current price near fair value
No strong momentum
Tight spread but no edge

Why not now

No clear edge versus the current price and the spread is tight, so the market appears efficiently priced.

Revisit when

Current price near fair value · No strong momentum · Tight spread but no edge

Execution guard

Price 16.9¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $754,485. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:35:53

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

16.9¢

Volume (24h) ?

$648,566

Liquidity ?

$525,997

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

53.3%

Momentum ?

0.6%

Volatility ?

0.0%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

16.8¢ 340,626.21

16.7¢ 125,932.99

16.6¢ 5,152.07

16.5¢ 24,270.29

16.4¢ 29,120.04

Asks

16.9¢ 63,300.46

17¢ 39,498.51

17.1¢ 2,110

17.2¢ 26,993.26

17.3¢ 27,925.87

Price history

Interval: 6h

5/31/2026, 14:14:03 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:16:05 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:18:04 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:20:06 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:22:05 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:24:05 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:26:03 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:28:03 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:30:04 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:32:04 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:34:06 16.85¢

5/31/2026, 14:35:04 16.85¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes → 0% 5/30/2026, 06:01:49

No clear edge versus the current price and the spread is tight, so the market appears efficiently priced.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.