Unified market view

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Watch trigger

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -3%

Confidence 72%

Price at model run 21.3¢ Model run: 7/14/2026, 00:00:25

Live best ask 58.2¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 15:56:07

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Current price looks efficient with heavy liquidity and a tight spread; no strong mispricing beyond a small bearish lean on Yes.

Watch triggers

Yes at 0.213 near fair
No side has stronger depth
Recent price drift is mild

Why not now

Current price looks efficient with heavy liquidity and a tight spread; no strong mispricing beyond a small bearish lean on Yes.

Revisit when

Yes at 0.213 near fair · No side has stronger depth · Recent price drift is mild

Execution guard

Price 58.2¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $8,343,216. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 7/15/2026, 15:56:07

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

58.2¢

Volume (24h) ?

$5,614,311

Liquidity ?

$8,343,216

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

-61.1%

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

0.0%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

58.1¢ 699,296.11

58¢ 131,916.57

57.9¢ 1,917.27

57.8¢ 10

57.7¢ 405

Asks

58.2¢ 2,310,160.96

58.3¢ 633,436.15

58.4¢ 200,000

58.5¢ 163,942.64

58.6¢ 150,000

Price history

Interval: 6h

7/15/2026, 15:33:11 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:35:06 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:37:10 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:39:06 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:41:07 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:43:06 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:45:05 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:47:04 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:49:06 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:51:21 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:53:09 58.15¢

7/15/2026, 15:55:05 58.15¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -3% 7/14/2026, 00:00:25

Current price looks efficient with heavy liquidity and a tight spread; no strong mispricing beyond a small bearish lean on Yes.

Yes ↓ -1% 7/13/2026, 18:00:14

No strong edge at current price; the market already reflects Spain as a low-probability contender, and recent momentum/orderbook are only mildly negative for Yes.

Yes ↓ -3% 7/13/2026, 06:00:26

The price is efficient in a highly liquid market and the current book imbalance does not create a strong enough edge to buy Spain or short it aggressively.

Yes ↓ -1% 7/13/2026, 00:00:24

Tight spread and deep liquidity, but price is already efficient around 20.5% with no strong catalyst or mispricing signal.

Yes ↓ -3% 7/11/2026, 00:00:12

Price action and orderbook lean against Yes, but the edge is modest and the spread is tight enough that the current price already reflects most of the information.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.