7/14/2026, 00:00:25 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
21.3¢
Current price looks efficient with heavy liquidity and a tight spread; no strong mispricing beyond a small bearish lean on Yes.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 0.213 near fair · No side has stronger depth · Recent price drift is mild
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
72%
Spain is priced around 21.3%, but World Cup winner odds are typically compressed and Spain still has elite upside; however recent drift is modestly against Yes and orderbook favors No.
7/13/2026, 18:00:14 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
21¢
No strong edge at current price; the market already reflects Spain as a low-probability contender, and recent momentum/orderbook are only mildly negative for Yes.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes near 21% with tight spread · 1w trend down for Yes · orderbook favors No
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
58%
Spain is priced around 21%, but World Cup winner odds this far out are highly uncertain. Recent price action favors No, and the Yes side lacks a clear catalyst or mispricing.
7/13/2026, 06:00:26 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
20.7¢
The price is efficient in a highly liquid market and the current book imbalance does not create a strong enough edge to buy Spain or short it aggressively.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes bid-ask is tight at 0.207/0.208 · Orderbook heavily favors No liquidity · Week trend is down from 0.1285 to 0.2075 for Yes
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
71%
Spain is priced around 20.7%, but the market has drifted down modestly over the past week while the orderbook favors No. No strong catalyst suggests Spain should be above market-implied odds.
7/13/2026, 00:00:24 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
20.5¢
Tight spread and deep liquidity, but price is already efficient around 20.5% with no strong catalyst or mispricing signal.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Near-mid price implies fair value · No strong momentum · Orderbook not enough for edge
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
58%
Spain is priced near 20.5%, but the long-run profile still looks like a top-tier contender; however recent price action is flat and the market already reflects most of the upside, leaving little clear edge.
7/11/2026, 00:00:12 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
21¢
Price action and orderbook lean against Yes, but the edge is modest and the spread is tight enough that the current price already reflects most of the information.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers 1w drift lower for Yes · No-side depth dominates · No strong positive catalyst
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
67%
Spain is priced near 21%, but the market has moved down over 1w/1d and orderbook skews toward No with much stronger bid depth on No; no clear bullish catalyst for Yes.
