Yes ↓ -1% 7/15/2026, 00:00:34
No clear edge at current price. The market already implies a very low England title chance, and the book shows persistent bearish pressure on Yes despite the recent rally.
Unified market view
Market #558935
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 58%
Price at model run 22.9¢ Model run: 7/15/2026, 00:00:34
Live best ask — Live update: —
Model gpt-5.4-mini
No clear edge at current price. The market already implies a very low England title chance, and the book shows persistent bearish pressure on Yes despite the recent rally.
Watch triggers
- Yes ask depth dominates bid depth
- No side has strong top-of-book support
- Recent 1w Yes rally may already be priced in
Why not now
No clear edge at current price. The market already implies a very low England title chance, and the book shows persistent bearish pressure on Yes despite the recent rally.
Revisit when
Yes ask depth dominates bid depth · No side has strong top-of-book support · Recent 1w Yes rally may already be priced in
Execution guard
Price — · spread — · liquidity —. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -2% 7/14/2026, 18:00:29
Price is tightly ranged with a tiny spread and the model edge is modestly negative, so there is no strong buy setup. Better to wait for a cheaper entry or clearer tournament-related information.
Yes ↓ -1% 7/14/2026, 06:00:30
No clear upside at current price; England win probability appears below 21.5% after adjusting for base rates and market structure.
Yes ↓ -1% 7/13/2026, 12:00:27
Price is tightly anchored around 0.216 with minimal short-term movement and only modest orderbook skew, so there is no strong trading edge.
Related whale flow
All tradesNo related large trades in the current 24h cache.