7/15/2026, 00:00:34 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
22.9¢
No clear edge at current price. The market already implies a very low England title chance, and the book shows persistent bearish pressure on Yes despite the recent rally.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes ask depth dominates bid depth · No side has strong top-of-book support · Recent 1w Yes rally may already be priced in
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
58%
Yes trades near 0.229 with strong recent drift, but the order book is heavily tilted to No and the Yes ask depth is much larger than bid depth, limiting upside.
7/14/2026, 18:00:29 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
21.5¢
Price is tightly ranged with a tiny spread and the model edge is modestly negative, so there is no strong buy setup. Better to wait for a cheaper entry or clearer tournament-related information.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask still near 0.215 · Top-of-book ask depth exceeds bid depth · 1d price drift is slightly negative
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
67%
England is priced around 21.5%, which looks slightly rich versus a strong-field World Cup win chance; recent drift has been flat-to-down and the order book shows more ask than bid at the top. No clear catalyst suggests upside from here.
7/14/2026, 06:00:30 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
21.5¢
No clear upside at current price; England win probability appears below 21.5% after adjusting for base rates and market structure.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask only 0.216 · Orderbook favors No · 1w price rose but stalled
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
58%
Price at 0.215 looks rich versus England’s low historical World Cup win rate; recent drift is flat and orderbook mildly favors No.
7/13/2026, 12:00:27 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
21.6¢
Price is tightly anchored around 0.216 with minimal short-term movement and only modest orderbook skew, so there is no strong trading edge.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask near 0.216 · 1h and 6h flat · No side remains dominant
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
62%
England trades slightly below the modeled win chance implied by the market, and the recent 1d/1h price action is flat to down with No heavily favored.
