Unified market view

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes → 0%

Confidence 56%

Current price 16.6¢

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price is efficient within a tight spread, with modest negative drift but no clear edge versus implied probability.

Watch triggers

Tight 0.1% spread
No clear model edge
Recent price drift down

Why not now

Price is efficient within a tight spread, with modest negative drift but no clear edge versus implied probability.

Revisit when

Tight 0.1% spread · No clear model edge · Recent price drift down

Execution guard

Price 16.6¢ · spread 0.1 pts · liquidity $786,286. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:35:52

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

17.1¢

Volume (24h) ?

$781,946

Liquidity ?

$847,614

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

0.1¢

Depth imbalance ?

65.3%

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

0.0%

Trend slope ?

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

17¢ 1,181,280.87

16.9¢ 3,519.26

16.8¢ 1,296.07

16.7¢ 514.18

16.6¢ 3,178.02

Asks

17.1¢ 209,349.85

17.2¢ 589.46

17.3¢ 719.61

17.4¢ 80

17.5¢ 38,796.22

Price history

Interval: 6h

5/31/2026, 14:14:03 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:16:05 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:18:04 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:20:06 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:22:05 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:24:05 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:26:03 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:28:03 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:30:04 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:32:04 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:34:06 17.05¢

5/31/2026, 14:35:04 17.05¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes → 0% 5/30/2026, 06:01:24

Price is efficient within a tight spread, with modest negative drift but no clear edge versus implied probability.

Related whale flow

All trades

No related large trades in the current 24h cache.