Unified market view

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.

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Research boundary

This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.

Decision state

Hold: Efficient price

Hold

Model edge Yes ↓ -1%

Confidence 73%

Price at model run 9¢ Model run: 7/14/2026, 18:01:01

Live best ask 10¢ Live update: 7/14/2026, 19:41:11

Model gpt-5.4-mini

Price is near fair for a very remote tail outcome; liquidity is high, spread is tight, but there is no clear mispricing or short-term catalyst.

Watch triggers

Yes only 9%
No side dominates book
No collapse catalyst

Why not now

Price is near fair for a very remote tail outcome; liquidity is high, spread is tight, but there is no clear mispricing or short-term catalyst.

Revisit when

Yes only 9% · No side dominates book · No collapse catalyst

Execution guard

Price 10¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $597,182. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.

Summary

Updated at 7/14/2026, 19:41:11

Signal

Hold

Best ask ?

10¢

Volume (24h) ?

$173,264

Liquidity ?

$597,182

Open interest ?

—

Spread ?

1¢

Depth imbalance ?

13.0%

Momentum ?

0.0%

Volatility ?

1.1%

Trend slope ?

-0

Reasons

No strong edge detected

Rule notes

No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.

Orderbook

Outcome Yes

Bids

9¢ 41,957.34

8¢ 31,016.28

7¢ 140,716.75

6¢ 142,345.14

5¢ 182,289.37

Asks

10¢ 37,066.84

11¢ 237,933.3

12¢ 130,965.39

13¢ 4,560

14¢ 3,597.2

Price history

Interval: 6h

7/14/2026, 19:19:05 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:21:07 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:23:05 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:25:07 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:27:05 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:29:05 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:31:05 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:33:05 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:35:05 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:37:05 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:39:06 9.5¢

7/14/2026, 19:40:21 9.5¢

Prediction history

Full history

Yes ↓ -1% 7/14/2026, 18:01:01

Price is near fair for a very remote tail outcome; liquidity is high, spread is tight, but there is no clear mispricing or short-term catalyst.

Related whale flow

All trades

Buy · No 7/14/2026, 17:49:38

$70,314 90¢