Yes ↓ -1% 5/31/2026, 06:01:59
The market is tightly priced with a small spread and no clear informational edge; I see no strong reason to enter at current levels.
Unified market view
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 58%
Current price 18¢
Model gpt-5.4-mini
The market is tightly priced with a small spread and no clear informational edge; I see no strong reason to enter at current levels.
Watch triggers
- No visible escalation catalyst
- Price near 18% with stable range
- Orderbook depth is balanced
Why not now
The market is tightly priced with a small spread and no clear informational edge; I see no strong reason to enter at current levels.
Revisit when
No visible escalation catalyst · Price near 18% with stable range · Orderbook depth is balanced
Execution guard
Price 18¢ · spread 1 pts · liquidity $586,277. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 5/31/2026, 14:35:06
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
18¢Volume (24h) ?
$97,484Liquidity ?
$573,186Open interest ?
—Spread ?
1¢Depth imbalance ?
29.7%Momentum ?
-5.4%Volatility ?
0.4%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
17¢ 18,430.93
16¢ 28,257.79
15¢ 55,833.9
14¢ 16,563.81
13¢ 22,387.59
Asks
18¢ 3,851.49
19¢ 50,853.33
20¢ 14,609.79
21¢ 4,582.39
22¢ 2,762.73
Price history
Interval: 6h
5/31/2026, 14:13:04 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:15:03 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:17:05 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:19:03 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:21:06 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:23:04 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:25:03 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:27:04 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:29:04 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:31:06 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:33:03 17.5¢
5/31/2026, 14:34:03 17.5¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -4% 5/30/2026, 12:02:41
Liquidity is solid and price is range-bound; the small bearish edge is not large enough to justify an active trade at current spread.
Yes ↓ -3% 5/28/2026, 12:02:01
No clear edge versus the 21% Yes price. Price action is choppy, orderbook is balanced, and there is no near-term catalyst visible.
Yes ↓ -1% 5/26/2026, 06:02:19
The market is already near fair value and the book is balanced enough to avoid a strong edge; slight bearish lean is not enough for a trade.
Yes ↑ +1% 5/25/2026, 00:01:40
No clear mispricing: the Yes side has a small positive edge, but the spread is tight and the market is already pricing a low-probability event with strong depth. Better to wait for a clearer geopol...
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · Yes 5/31/2026, 06:03:11
$8,131 17.07¢