5/31/2026, 06:01:59 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
18¢
The market is tightly priced with a small spread and no clear informational edge; I see no strong reason to enter at current levels.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers No visible escalation catalyst · Price near 18% with stable range · Orderbook depth is balanced
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
58%
Price implies about 18% while the event still looks low-probability; no catalyst, and orderbook/history show only mild short-term drift with balanced depth.
5/30/2026, 12:02:41 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
19¢
Liquidity is solid and price is range-bound; the small bearish edge is not large enough to justify an active trade at current spread.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best bid/ask near 19-20% · No momentum breakout · Longer-term drift is mixed
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-4% Confidence
63%
Market prices a low invasion chance, but the current ask/bid and long-run drift still favor a slightly lower true probability than 19%; no strong catalyst suggests imminent action.
5/28/2026, 12:02:01 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
21¢
No clear edge versus the 21% Yes price. Price action is choppy, orderbook is balanced, and there is no near-term catalyst visible.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Balanced orderbook · Mixed short-term trend · No clear escalation catalyst
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
62%
The market implies a low invasion probability, but there is no strong evidence of imminent escalation; recent drift is mixed and the spread/liquidity look efficient. I slightly favor No over the current Yes price.
5/26/2026, 06:02:19 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
Medium-term Current price
19¢
The market is already near fair value and the book is balanced enough to avoid a strong edge; slight bearish lean is not enough for a trade.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes near 0.19 · 7d downtrend · No-side depth heavier
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
58%
Yes trades near 0.19 with no short-term momentum and the 7d move is down; order book depth also favors No, so upside looks limited.
5/25/2026, 00:01:40 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
18¢
No clear mispricing: the Yes side has a small positive edge, but the spread is tight and the market is already pricing a low-probability event with strong depth. Better to wait for a clearer geopol...
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes at 18-19% · Deep liquidity · Only slight positive edge
Yes bullish ↑ Edge
+1% Confidence
58%
Price is only 18-19% for a U.S. invasion by 2026, but recent flow and 24h uptick suggest a slightly higher tail risk than implied. Still, the market is already efficient and liquidity is deep, limiting edge.
