7/14/2026, 18:00:49 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
19¢
Liquidity is good but the market is range-bound and the current 19c price appears close to fair. No strong directional edge from price action or orderbook.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Tight 1c spread · Flat short-term history · No clear catalyst
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-1% Confidence
62%
Yes trades at 0.19 with very tight spread and strong bid depth, but no catalyst suggests the market is already near fair value. Slightly prefer No given the high bar for an actual U.S. invasion and lack of momentum in price.
7/13/2026, 00:00:52 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
18¢
Yes looks a bit overpriced versus the probability of a true U.S. invasion meeting the market's strict definition.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Yes trading at 0.18 · High bar for resolution · Recent price drift lacks conviction
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-3% Confidence
63%
Current price implies a relatively high invasion chance, but the market has been mean-reverting and the U.S. invasion threshold is very high. Orderbook depth and spread suggest fair value near the current quote, so I see slight downside to Yes.
7/12/2026, 06:00:59 gpt-5.4-mini
Signal Hold Horizon
To expiry Current price
17¢
No clear edge at 0.17; the market already prices a small risk, and the evidence does not support a strong directional bet.
Note
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
Triggers Best ask only 0.18 · No event catalyst · Long-dated, high threshold
Yes bearish ↓ Edge
-2% Confidence
62%
Price 0.17 implies a low invasion chance. Recent drift is upward, but the event threshold is very high and there is no catalyst or tightening in the orderbook to justify a meaningful premium.
