Yes ↓ -1% 7/14/2026, 18:00:49
Liquidity is good but the market is range-bound and the current 19c price appears close to fair. No strong directional edge from price action or orderbook.
Unified market view
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Model view, orderbook, price history, and related whale flow in one place.
Research boundary
This is market intelligence, not financial advice. Verify rules, liquidity, price, and your own risk before trading.
Decision state
Hold: Efficient price
Hold
Model edge Yes ↓ -1%
Confidence 62%
Price at model run 19¢ Model run: 7/14/2026, 18:00:49
Live best ask 18¢ Live update: 7/15/2026, 18:10:10
Model gpt-5.4-mini
Liquidity is good but the market is range-bound and the current 19c price appears close to fair. No strong directional edge from price action or orderbook.
Watch triggers
- Tight 1c spread
- Flat short-term history
- No clear catalyst
Why not now
Liquidity is good but the market is range-bound and the current 19c price appears close to fair. No strong directional edge from price action or orderbook.
Revisit when
Tight 1c spread · Flat short-term history · No clear catalyst
Execution guard
Price 18¢ · spread 2 pts · liquidity $634,369. Do not act unless model view and market tape agree.
Summary
Updated at 7/15/2026, 18:10:10
Signal
HoldBest ask ?
18¢Volume (24h) ?
$378,590Liquidity ?
$634,369Open interest ?
—Spread ?
2¢Depth imbalance ?
19.3%Momentum ?
-8.1%Volatility ?
0.6%Trend slope ?
-0Reasons
- No strong edge detected
Rule notes
- No single rule is strong enough to signal buy/sell.
Orderbook
Outcome Yes
Bids
16¢ 206,109.25
15¢ 148,825.19
14¢ 264,607.88
13¢ 26,911.05
12¢ 119,952.58
Asks
18¢ 17,043.04
19¢ 47,004.35
20¢ 366,698.74
21¢ 47,863.86
22¢ 40,358
Price history
Interval: 6h
7/15/2026, 17:48:05 17.5¢
7/15/2026, 17:50:07 17.5¢
7/15/2026, 17:52:05 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 17:54:05 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 17:56:05 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 17:58:05 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 18:00:07 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 18:02:03 16.5¢
7/15/2026, 18:04:05 17¢
7/15/2026, 18:06:05 17¢
7/15/2026, 18:08:05 17¢
7/15/2026, 18:09:05 17¢
Prediction history
Full historyYes ↓ -3% 7/13/2026, 00:00:52
Yes looks a bit overpriced versus the probability of a true U.S. invasion meeting the market's strict definition.
Yes ↓ -2% 7/12/2026, 06:00:59
No clear edge at 0.17; the market already prices a small risk, and the evidence does not support a strong directional bet.
Related whale flow
All tradesSell · No 7/15/2026, 13:40:13
$97,158 81¢
Sell · No 7/15/2026, 13:18:23
$8,100 81¢