Yes ↑ +1% 2026/9/17 18:00:50
The model assigns a modestly higher probability to passage than the market, so Yes appears slightly underpriced.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看低
資料缺口執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +1%
置信度 42%
模型運行時價格 8.4¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:00:50
即時最佳賣價 8.3¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 19:51:15
模型 OpenAI
The Yes price has recovered sharply over the past day and six hours, suggesting improving expectations, while the long-term trend remains substantially lower. A modest probability above the 8.4% market price is plausible, but legislative uncertainty and thin near-top liquidity limit conviction.
觀察觸發點
- Congressional committee or floor action
- Senate support becomes clearer
- Price sustains above 0.10
為何仍需確認
The Yes price has recovered sharply over the past day and six hours, suggesting improving expectations, while the long-term trend remains substantially lower. A modest probability above the 8.4% market price is plausible, but legislative uncertainty and thin near-top liquidity limit conviction.
重新評估條件
Congressional committee or floor action · Senate support becomes clearer · Price sustains above 0.10
執行約束
價格 8.3¢ · 價差 0.3 pts · 流動性 $624,033。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 19:51:15
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
8.3¢24h 成交量 ?
$307,548流動性 ?
$624,033未平倉量 ?
$5,823,218價差 ?
0.3¢深度不平衡 ?
-7.5%動量 ?
5.8%波動率 ?
0.9%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
8¢ 142.09
7.9¢ 2,366.91
7.8¢ 49,400
7.7¢ 69,943.54
7.6¢ 54,955
賣盤
8.3¢ 20.03
8.4¢ 2,407.29
8.5¢ 2,309.11
8.6¢ 10,010.98
8.7¢ 190,640.72
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 19:28:21 7.95¢
2026/9/17 19:30:19 7.95¢
2026/9/17 19:32:15 7.95¢
2026/9/17 19:34:15 7.95¢
2026/9/17 19:36:34 7.95¢
2026/9/17 19:38:15 7.95¢
2026/9/17 19:40:29 8¢
2026/9/17 19:42:16 8¢
2026/9/17 19:44:15 8¢
2026/9/17 19:46:16 8¢
2026/9/17 19:48:15 8.15¢
2026/9/17 19:49:15 8.2¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↑ +1% 2026/9/17 12:00:56
The model sees a small positive divergence for Yes, but the estimate is highly uncertain because no legislative catalyst or progress data is provided.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 06:00:45
No clear mispricing is detected: short-term recovery conflicts with the broader weekly downtrend, while legislative timing and outcome uncertainty remain substantial.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 00:00:41
No clear divergence from fair value is supported by the supplied data. Price momentum is mixed across horizons, and orderbook imbalance may reflect positioning rather than new information.
Yes ↓ -1% 2026/9/16 18:00:25
The market appears modestly overvalued for Yes, though the edge is small and highly sensitive to new legislative information.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 2026/9/17 19:00:31
$8,584 92.3¢
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$17,602 92.2¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 18:51:52
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買入 · No 2026/9/17 16:50:00
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買入 · No 2026/9/17 16:49:13
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買入 · No 2026/9/17 15:30:16
$5,623 91.21¢
賣出 · No 2026/9/17 14:16:16
$9,206 92.06¢