2026/9/17 18:00:50 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
8.4¢
The Yes price has recovered sharply over the past day and six hours, suggesting improving expectations, while the long-term trend remains substantially lower. A modest probability above the 8.4% market price is plausible, but legislative uncertainty and thin near-top liquidity limit conviction.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Congressional committee or floor action · Senate support becomes clearer · Price sustains above 0.10
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+1% 置信度
42%
The Yes price has recovered sharply over the past day and six hours, suggesting improving expectations, while the long-term trend remains substantially lower. A modest probability above the 8.4% market price is plausible, but legislative uncertainty and thin near-top liquidity limit conviction.
2026/9/17 12:00:56 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
到期前 當前價
7.4¢
The Yes price near 7.5% may modestly understate the chance of enactment by the 2026 deadline, given the recent one-day rebound. However, the sharp weekly decline, heavy sell-side depth, and substantial legislative uncertainty limit conviction.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Congressional committee or floor action · Credible bipartisan support updates · Yes price moves materially above 10%
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+1% 置信度
28%
The Yes price near 7.5% may modestly understate the chance of enactment by the 2026 deadline, given the recent one-day rebound. However, the sharp weekly decline, heavy sell-side depth, and substantial legislative uncertainty limit conviction.
2026/9/17 06:00:45 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
7.9¢
The market implies roughly an 8% probability, and available price action does not establish a reliable divergence. Recent rebound momentum is offset by a steep weekly decline and limited event-specific evidence, so the estimated probability remains near market value.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Congressional committee advancement · Floor scheduling or passage · Bipartisan agreement
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
0% 置信度
34%
The market implies roughly an 8% probability, and available price action does not establish a reliable divergence. Recent rebound momentum is offset by a steep weekly decline and limited event-specific evidence, so the estimated probability remains near market value.
2026/9/17 00:00:41 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
6.5¢
The market prices passage and enactment at approximately 6.5%. Recent daily recovery and strong bid depth contrast with a substantial weekly decline, while the orderbook and short-term history provide no reliable fundamental evidence of mispricing. Reassess after legislative progress or credible congressional signals.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Committee or floor action · Credible bipartisan support · Material legislative opposition
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
0% 置信度
63%
The market prices passage and enactment at approximately 6.5%. Recent daily recovery and strong bid depth contrast with a substantial weekly decline, while the orderbook and short-term history provide no reliable fundamental evidence of mispricing. Reassess after legislative progress or credible congressional signals.
2026/9/16 18:00:25 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
6.4¢
The Yes price near 6.6% appears slightly above a cautious estimated probability of about 6.0%. The sharp weekly decline supports limited near-term optimism, while substantial time remains for legislative developments; new bill progress or credible bipartisan support would warrant revisiting the estimate.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Committee advancement or formal floor scheduling · Bipartisan negotiations or public support · Major changes in congressional leadership
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-1% 置信度
62%
The Yes price near 6.6% appears slightly above a cautious estimated probability of about 6.0%. The sharp weekly decline supports limited near-term optimism, while substantial time remains for legislative developments; new bill progress or credible bipartisan support would warrant revisiting the estimate.
